Macy’s is in trouble.
The retailer’s same-store sales growth has been weakening over the last several years, and Deutsche Bank analysts expect things to only get worse for the department store chain.
Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Trussell on Monday downgraded Macy’s from “buy” to “sell,” saying he has “low confidence that the company can bust out of its same-stores sales rut.”
Sales declines at Michael Kors, one of Macy’s key vendors, were cited as a primary reason for the downgrade.
“We are especially concerned as we see no obvious juggernaut to replace the lost dollars, and we note ongoing challenges at other key vendors as well,” Trussell wrote, specifically naming Coach, Guess, and Ralph Lauren, as additional venders that could cause problems.
Michael Kors’ same-store sales declined 6.7% in North America during its most recent quarter. The company’s shares are down 43% since the beginning of the year and nearly 52% in the last 12 months.
Michael Kors’ downfall is the result of its widespread popularity. The name became too ubiquitous to remain cool, analysts say.
But Michael Kors isn’t Macy’s only problem.
Trussell also cited concerns about declining revenue from tourists, as well as a major shift in discretionary spending from products (like clothing) to experiences and technology.
Macy’s is also suffering from a shift toward direct-to-consumer business models, in which brands use their own websites to sell directly to customers without going through a department! store l ike Macy’s.
At a recent conference, Bloomingdale’s Chairman and CEO Tony Spring said this changing landscape keeps him up at night.
“Our vendors are our partners and suppliers. But many have also become our competitors,” Spring said at the Retail Marketing Society’s “Reinventing the Store” conference in June, according to Trussell.
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Jun 11, 2015
Hang around the crowdfunding scene long enough and you'll hear tales of campaigns that were too good to be true, or creators who simply took the money and ran. It's scary stuff, we know — but you'll be glad to hear that the Federal Trade Commission now has your back when the host sites' safeguards aren't enough. The government body has taken its first action against a crowdfunding fraudster, reaching a settlement with Erik Chevalier after he cancelled a Kickstarter board game project and reneged on promised refunds. The culprit won't pay restitution, unfortunately (he's allegedly unable to pay), but he's barred from any deceptive crowdfunding practices and obligated to honor whatever refund policies he sets. A slap on the wrist, then? Maybe, but it's still a shot across the bow of scammers who are only interested in padding their bank accounts.
[Image credit: Getty Images]
eMarketer estimates that US programmatic digital display ad spending will leap 48.9% this year to hit $14.88 billion, or 55.0% of total digital display ad spend. While the majority of those dollars will likely focus on direct-response efforts, April 2015 research by Econsultancy in association with Quantcast finds that programmatic branding adoption is relatively high, and spending will rise in the coming years.
Among UK and US senior marketers polled, 62% said their companies ran programmatic advertising campaigns for branding objectives. What was holding back nearly four in 10 non-users from buying in, or existing users from investing further? Data privacy concerns and difficulty proving return on investment were the two most common issues, each cited by 23% of respondents. Lack of quality data (18%), a complex marketplace (17%) and lack of transparency (16%) rounded out the top five.
When asked about the benefits of using programmatic for branding, respondents were most likely to cite increased efficiency, reduced overall advertising costs and the ability to optimize and target the right audience in real time as “major” benefits. Among all benefits included, at least 45% of respondents rated them highly beneficial.
Notes: Global internet consumption grew by almost 84% between 2010 and 2014, driving overall media consumption growth of 5.1%, to 485 minutes per day, according to estimates released by ZenithOptimedia. Exposure to outdoor advertising was the only traditional medium to show an increase during that 5-year period, of 1.2%, with time spent with TV (-6%), print newspapers (-25.6%) and print magazines (-19%) all declining. Nevertheless, TV still dominated global media consumption last year at an average of 183.9 minutes per day, 68% higher than internet consumption (109.5 minutes/day).
TV is expected to still account for more than one-third (34.7%) of global media consumption by 2017, though time spent watching broadcast programs on TV sets is expected to decline by 1.7% per year. By contrast, time spent accessing the internet is predicted to grow by 9.4% per year between 2014 and 2017.
Source: FreeWheel [download page]
Notes: Premium digital video ad views continue to migrate to devices outside of desktops and laptops, per FreeWheel’s latest quarterly report, with strong growth in particular coming from smartphones, which accounted for 17% of overall views, more than double a year earlier. OTT Devices also demonstrated rapid growth year-over-year, though their 8% share was consistent with the previous quarter.
In other study results:
- Authenticated viewing accounted for 57% of long-form and live monetization for programmers (MVPDs) in Q1, more than double the 25% share from a year earlier;
- OTT devices continue to represent the second-largest share of authenticated ad views, at 19% in Q1;
- Overall video views grew by 40% year-over-year and video ad views by 43%, driven by live and long-form viewing;
- Tablets and OTT devices continue to be used primarily for long-form (20+ minutes) and live viewing, with the opposite true for desktops/laptops and smartphones; and
- Ad completion rates were almost as high for post-roll (72%) as for pre-roll (73%) videos.
Source: Leichtman Research Group (LRG)
Notes: Although the pay-TV subscriber market continues to be larger than the broadband subscriber market, that gap continues to narrow, per the latest data from LRG. The results indicate that the top broadband providers – representing roughly 94% of the market – added about 1.2 million subscribers in Q1 2015, bringing their total to 88.5 million. Cable companies had a particularly strong quarter, with a net gain of slightly more than 1 million subscribers, their largest net add since Q1 2008.
By comparison, they didn’t fare so well with pay-TV subscribers. Indeed, the top 9 cable companies shed roughly 60,000 video subscribers in Q1, though that wasn’t much worse than in Q1 2014, when they lost around 50,000. Overall, though, the top pay-TV providers (representing about 95% of the market) had a weak first quarter, adding only around 7,000 subscribers overall. That’s despite this being traditionally a strong quarter: last year, these providers added more than 250,000 video subscribers in Q1.
Indeed, the top telephone providers (+140,000) had the fewest net adds since Q4 2006, while the top DBS companies (+52,000) had the fewest of any first quarter since LRG began tracking the pay-TV market.
Notes: While TV’s share of adults’ daily media time has shrunk slightly in the past couple of years, the medium continues to pull in a disproportionately high share of ad spending, according to new eMarketer estimates. This year, TV is expected to account for 36.4% of adults’ daily major media time, while raking in slightly more than 40% of media ad dollars. And while consumption of – and ad spending on – digital video has been rising quickly, digital is expected to pull in just 4.4% of ad spend versus its 10.9% share of adults’ media consumption this year. The disparity may be related to the greater perceived influence of TV advertising; eMarketer attributes TV’s continued strength as part inertia and part concern from advertisers over digital video ad viewability and completion rates.
Dr. Augustine Fou is Digital Consigliere to marketing executives, advising them on digital strategy and Unified Marketing(tm). Dr Fou has over 17 years of in-the-trenches, hands-on experience, which enables him to provide objective, in-depth assessments of their current marketing programs and recommendations for improving business impact and ROI using digital insights.
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