drag2share: The Global Smartphone Market Is Still Accelerating, And Will End The Year Just Shy Of 1 Billion Units Shipped
We estimate smartphone shipments will reach 975 million units this year and grow 45%, which is faster than the previous year, when growth reached about 43%.
In any high-growth hardware market, shipments will typically taper off as penetration slows and the market becomes increasingly saturated. And the smartphone market has passed the halfway point by at least one measure: 55% of all mobile phones sold globally are now smartphones.
But smartphone adoption in certain underpenetrated emerging markets, particularly China and India, have helped smartphone growth accelerate. Here’s some of evidence of how that’s happening:
- During the second quarter, shipments in China reached 98% year-over-year growth, and accounted for 38% of the global smartphone shipments total for the quarter. In August, smartphone sales hit a new monthly high in China with about 30 million units sold.
- IDC claims that India’s smartphone market grew an explosive 229% year-over-year in the third quarter.
T! he smartphone market won’t reach the one billion units shipped-milestone until next year, after about eight years of existence (growth will taper off, however, and only reach 35% in 2014).
The next billion in annual shipments will come faster than the first billion did. The smartphone market will pass the 2 billion threshold in shipments sometime in 2017 thanks to steady growth in new markets.
In our most recent report on tablets, we updated our outlook for tablet shipments over the next five years, and we stand by those numbers.
In 2013, tablet sales will grow roughly 75% to reach just over 225 million for the year. Tablet shipments will overtake PC shipments in early 2015.
By 2018, tablet and PC sales combined will amount to just 45% of total smartphone sales. Here’s another look at the same data:
A majority of online audiences in 22 out of 25 key global markets use social media at least once a week, and report spending an average of 2.5 hours daily on social networking, according to Ipsos OTX.
Here are some other key findings:
- When Internet users who don’t use social media are removed from the average time-spend calculation, the figure shoots up to 3.6 hours daily. In other words, people who do use social media, spend quite a lot of time on it.
- The average across countries is that 64% of the Internet population uses social media.
- At 82%, Turkey has the highest proportion of online audiences who use social networking sites once a week or more.
- At 26%, the Japanese Internet population has the lowest rate of weekly social media usage.
The data comes from an online poll of respondents across 25 countries.
Facebook executives have been outspoken lately about turning the News Feed into a modern day “newspaper” that serves as essential morning reading for users. The company even announced changes to its News Feed algorithm so that higher-quality content would rank higher in the Feed.
However, before Facebook publicized these major changes to its main product, the social network was already used as a source of news for millions of people.
According to a Pew Research study released in November, 30% of U.S. adults said they get their news from Facebook (more than any other social network).
What’s more, among those who do consume news on Facebook, 34% are between the ages of 18 to 29 and 39% are between 30 to 49.
Facebook News Feed manager Lars Backstrom recently alluded that he equates “high-quality” content with “1,000-word stories.” However, as the traditional media industry knows, younger readers aren’t necessarily interested in long-form content. Moreover, plenty of news on mainstream news sites clock in at under 1,000 words.
Understanding the habits of readers and cracking the code for sorting what news is important and what’s not ! is a difficult business. If Facebook is really going to tackle this project, it has its work cut out. (The Atlantic)
For the second straight year, the number of U.S. households that own TVs has declined, according to an excellent investor note from Citi Research analyst Jason B. Bazinet and his team.
Only 112 million U.S. households now have TV, down from a high of 116 million.
Note that the decline in TV ownership comes despite an increase in the number of households.
So who is to blame? Here’s one culprit: Netflix now has 33 million streaming video subscribers. That’s the equivalent of one third of the 90 million-strong cable/satellite TV subscriber universe. You don’t need cable TV to watch Netflix, of course.
The rise of Netflix.
Amazingly, Netflix has amassed this online audience in just six years. It began streaming only in 2007.
This next chart (below) shows whose revenues are most at risk from cord-cutters who live without traditional TV and get by on internet video instead.
Companies at-risk from cord-cutters.
Unsurprisingly, Citi has a “sell” rating on Discovery Networks, the cable content provider. It’s still bullish on the cable service companies themselves, however, because Bazinet believes they can offset TV losses with new broadband web subscriptions.
We’d heard about Facebook experimenting with auto-playing videos in its news feeds on mobile (see it in action after the break), but now the change is rolling out widely no matter where you’re wasting time from. TechCrunch confirmed the new feature (recently added to the changelog on iOS) is coming to all mobile users, and today learned it’s expanding on the desktop as well. Now, Facebook’s feeds are more like Vine and especially Instagram, particularly the latter since sound remains muted until the videos are actually clicked. Of course, this is about more than just adding a few extra views to the counter, as it could lead to autoplaying video ads in the feed, which have been rumored for quite some time and are expected to launch next year.
On the heels of its acquisition of Arbitron, Nielsen has added audio measurement to its mix, including some data on radio listening to its latest cross-platform report [download page]. According to Nielsen, more than 9 in 10 Americans listen to radio on a weekly basis, with those figures highest among Hispanics (94%) and African-Americans (92%). Interestingly, a comparison of user demographics reveals that radio’s adult audience has a very similar age profile as mobile’s audience.
Specifically, 12.8% of AM/FM radio’s adult audience is in the 18-24 demographic, exactly the same percentage as with mobile’s audience. Moreover, 34.8% of the AM/FM radio audience is aged 25-44, as is 34.5% of the mobile audience.
Radio’s audience looks far more similar to mobile’s audience than TV’s, which skews much older. Among TV viewers, a relatively small 21.6% are in the 18-34 bracket (compared to 30.2% for radio and 30.1% for mobile). By contrast, 43.5% of TV viewers are aged 55 and older, compared to 33.4% for radio and 33.9% for mobile.
The similarities between radio and mobile tend to dissipate when sorting by other demographic factors, though. While 31.6% of AM/FM radio listeners are college graduates, that figure rises to 41.5% among mobile users. And radio’s audience appears to be slightly more heavily skewed towards African-Americans than mobile (12.7% vs. 11.4%) with the opposite true for Hispanics (12.7% vs. 14.1%).
On average, Americans spend 60 hours and 42 minutes per month listening to AM/FM radio, per the report,! compared! to more than 150 hours for traditional TV. Radio’s audience continues to grow, according to a September study from Arbitron, which found that radio reaches 242.2 million listeners aged 12 and older on an average weekly basis, an increase of more than half-a-million listeners from the same period last year.
While social media may not be a significant direct referrer of traffic to e-commerce websites, it does have an influence on product discovery and purchase decisions, according to a pair of studies. Walker Sands’ “2014 Future of Retail Study” [download page] finds that almost 1 in 5 consumers claim to have discovered a product through Pinterest, while YouTube videos have influenced a purchase at least once for 53% of respondents. A survey from Social Media Link, meanwhile, indicates that about 2 in 3 social media users trust the product and service recommendations they find on Facebook.
That’s a slightly higher percentage than trust blogs (63%), retail websites (63%), Pinterest (56%) and YouTube (51%), though it’s unclear whether or not those results are confined to users of each channel.
Reports, such as this one, have shown that engagement with brands on social media is rising, and the Walker Sands study indicates that 3 in 5 respondents engage with brands on social media, with almost all of those (55% overall) doing so on Facebook. More claim to have engaged with brands on Twitter (21%) than on Pinterest (10%), a result which may reflect greater adoption of the former platform.
The study also demonstrates that the most common reason why consumers interact with brands on social media is for coupons and promotions (78%), ahead of discovering the latest news and products from bra! nds (65%)! , receiving customer support (24%) and to see what others are buying (19%). That’s not surprising given recent survey results indicating that for Facebook users, discounts and promotions are the most appealing brand posts.
4 in 10 respondents to a recent survey from GE Capital Retail Bank indicated that they would shop more at a retailer if it delivered them offers via mobile. But which types of offers would be most likely to trigger consumer action? That was one question posed by Responsys in a survey of consumers who have subscribed to mobile marketing from brands – of whom 64% claimed to have made a purchase based on having received a highly relevant mobile message.
According to data provided to MarketingCharts by Responsys, pricing-based offers are the most likely to sway the opt-in crowd, with 66% saying they would likely trigger an action. That indicates – once again – that deals have a powerful influence on consumer behavior. (Other research has found, for example, that consumers believe that deals and discounts are the largest influences on their online purchase decisions.)
After pricing-based offers, Responsys finds that consumers believe time-sensitive offers and location-based offers to be the next-most influential, with 52% and 50% of respondents, respectively, saying they’d be likely to act on them. Slightly fewer than half of the respondents said that product-based (47%) and similar product-based (45%) offers would do the trick. Respondents were most luke-warm about “a very general offer intended for the masses” – which would likely influence only 31% of respondents.
That spe! aks to the importance of offer relevance – which fails some respondents. Of the 28% of consumers who have subscribed to mobile marketing from brands, 35% say they messages they receive aren’t relevant.
- Consumers are 43% more likely to purchase when “mobile communications are part of an orchestrated marketing experience that unfolds over time across channels.” In other words, consumers respond to a seamless cross-channel experience.
- About half of respondents say that friend and family referrals are an effective trigger to get them to opt-in to mobile communications, with email (46%) the next-most effective.
While Americans continue to watch plenty of TV on the traditional TV set, non-traditional ways of viewing content are proliferating as consumers increasingly seek to watch programming on their own schedules. Accordingly, 7 in 10 TV households in the US have a DVR, subscribe to Netflix, or use Video-on-demand (VOD) from a cable or telco provider, per new data from Leichtman Research Group (LRG), with about 1 in 10 using all three services.
The study also finds that Netflix subscribers are watching an increasing number of TV shows on a monthly basis. This year, Netflix subscribers claim to watch an average of 19.6 TV shows per month, up from 12.7 last year and 9.9 the year before. That coincides with heavier streaming activity, as 29% of Netflix subscribers report streaming video on a daily basis, up from 10% doing so in 2010. Weekly video streaming has also grown from 43% of subscribers to 70% during that period.
DVR penetration also continues to mount, though the pace of growth appears to be leveling off. The latest survey results from LRG indicate that 47% of TV households have at least a single DVR, up from 40% in 2010 and 23% in 2007. Just-released data from Nielsen reveal that during Q3, consumers watched about 25 minutes of DVR playback per day, the highest for a third quarter going back at least to 2009.
Finally, 6 in 10 cable subscribers have used VOD, per LRG, up from 43% in 2008 and 10% in 2004.
- 58% of households with annual income of more than $50,000 have a DVR, versus 30% of those with annual income of less than that amount.
- The mean annual income of households using all 3 services (DVR, Netflix and VOD) is $96,900, 90% higher t! han the m! ean for those who use none of the services.
Dr. Augustine Fou is Digital Consigliere to marketing executives, advising them on digital strategy and Unified Marketing(tm). Dr Fou has over 17 years of in-the-trenches, hands-on experience, which enables him to provide objective, in-depth assessments of their current marketing programs and recommendations for improving business impact and ROI using digital insights.
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