Archive for July, 2009

The JKWeddingDance video was real; the viral effect was MANUFACTURED – Post 1 of 2

originally investigated and reported on Friday July 31, 2009 by Augustine Fou, with Tugce Esener @tesener

Several friends and colleagues had the same reaction when they found out about this video — that it was at such a high view count already and we were late to the party of finding out.  Then we did some more digging — digital forensics  :-)  And this is a case where a viral hit was indeed successfully manufactured.  There’s something to be learned from all this – how to successfully manufacture a viral video sensation and make viral profits.

Related: How to manufacture a viral video sensation and make viral profits – Post 2 of 2

Chris Brown is successfully tapping into the viral halo of a funny video that coincidentally used his song.

ReadWriteWeb article on how rights owners (Sony, Chris Brown) can make viral profits on other people using their work instead of suing them - http://bit.ly/KA3HI

The video was real. But promotional activities (possibly/likely paid) created the initial viral effect (led to the tipping point of the viral effect) which then got carried a further by people thinking they were simply late to the party, including myself (e.g. 440k bit.ly clicks and 3k detectable retweets out of the 13M views). The numbers don’t jive.

The viral halo has added 1 million more views to the video from August 1 – August 2.  (13.1 M to 14.5 M)


Ten ELEVEN TWELVE THIRTEEN proof points to follow, each with screen shot to illustrate.

1a. anyone notice that the “Forever” soundtrack is remarkably consistent throughout the video as if it were dubbed or added in after the original footage was shot. The sound is too consistent in volume and loudness to have come from a built-in, on-camera microphone. At the very end of the video, once it cuts back to the couple at the altar the sound quality goes back to the echo-y, tinny sound of an on-camera mic.

1b. The “TheKHeinz” user on YouTube was registered on July 19, 2009, the day the video was posted. We usually look for clues like this to detect “plants” by PR agencies.  This is an issue of trust — a user “CmdrTaco” on Slashdot has been around the forums for years, made hundreds of posts, and was rated by the community very highly. PR agencies trying to seed stories have to create new user accounts during the PR campaign (recent registration date) and have made no other posts or uploads before (no history).

thekheinz-user-info-on-youtube

2. The social intensity detected in all of the top social venues like Technorai, Delicious, Reddit, Digg, etc. indicate there was not enough organic sharing to support a view count of 13 million views in 11 days (updated: 14.6 million today August 2, 2009).

a) Bit.ly shows only 447k clicks on the shortened URL

bitly-statistics-on-jkwedding-video

“At Fortune’s Brainstorm:Tech conference Ashton Kutcher effectively took credit for boosting the views from – in his words – 12,500 views before he tweeted the link – to some 1.2 million views 12 hours later…”

Well, unfortunately he used a bit.ly link which provides public analytics on how many people clicked. Most tweets result in immediate traffic, which then tails off immediately after the tweet falls off the first page. In his case, look at the following bit.ly stats URL and click “past month” to see the peak clicks on July 23. All he can actually claim is that his tweet drove a peak of about 100,000 clicks on that day not 1.2 million :-(

http://bit.ly/info/Z7vMw

too bad Ashton. next time you make a BMOC claim, be sure to use a non trackable method, so analytics won’t “out” you so easily.

august-21-bitly-intensity-update

after only 3.5 days of retweets the twitter intensity died off to next-to-nothing; if this were a truly viral video, carried forth by real people (and not by paid PR support and paid media) the retweet intensity would remain high. As of August 21, there are over 21M views on the video and the 505k retweets does not show actual organic support for that number.

ashton-kutcher-promote-viral-video


b) Twitturly shows only 3 thousand retweets on the YouTube URL itself

updated-twitturly-stats-for-video

c) Delicious shows only 447 bookmarks of the video itself

delicious-bookmarks-jkwedding

delicious-bookmarks-jkweddingdance

d) Reddit only shows 673 thumbs up for the video itself

reddit-results-for-jkweddingvideo

e) Technorati shows only 277 blog mentions of the video itself — this could be undercounting if blogs used URL shorteners. But if you look at the blog intensity results (below) sorted by blogs with most authority the blogs have very little authority (i.e. influence or size of audience).

technorati-blog-posts-on-jkwedding

– these are real indications of interest by real people. The social intensity of the passalong for this video does not substantiate the huge number of views in 11 days.

What we are seeing now is the additional viral halo, as the momentum is sustained by large media outlets reporting on the story — even Google Blog blogged about it (boasting about the success of YouTube advertising in driving revenues). Of course TechCrunch is right that viral videos can be monetized: http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/07/30/youtube-viral-wedding-videos-are-great-for-advertising/ )


3. Twitter shows nothing in the top “trending topics” related to this video – indicating few people are actually tweeting about it — if this video is SO viral (13M views in 11 days) then it has GOT to show up on a scan of social intensity. (see screen capture below)

July 31 (Friday)                 August 2 (Sunday)

twitter-trending-topics-455pm-july-31-2009August-2-trending-twitter-topics

4. The original video was posted July 19, 2009. The people from the video appeared on NBC’s Today Show and danced around Rockerfeller Center on July 25th (6 calendar days after posting). Today Show staff may be great at spotting news, but to get all the wedding party from the wedding to re-enact the dance on the Today Show in 6 calendar days — too good to be true?  Hmm…

today-show-appearance


5. Out of all the wedding videos on YouTube, how did Chris Brown detect this particular one that used his song. @glenngabe noted that there are song detection mechanisms  - ContentID - which detect the pattern of the copyrighted song and report that to the rights owners. We know there are hundreds, if not thousaands, or really funny wedding home videos — America’s Funniest Videos has been running for years and years on TV showing funny wedding blooper videos that people submitted to them.


6. ALL TEN of the top viral videos on AdAge’s Viral Video Chart took around 3 – 6 months to achieve full viral effect — not 6 days.  See all 10 videos’ stats, as reported by YouTube at the following link. This video has not shown up at all on the list of Adage viral videos.

AdAge Top Viral Videos all take 3 – 6 months to reach full viral effect



7. From @RedW0rm – YouTube Declares Wedding Video a Financial Success http://bit.ly/9ZUtu


8. also check the velocity of this http://twitter.com/#search?q=jkwedding or this http://twitter.com/#search?q=jkweddingdance notice the tweets are not seconds apart but hours apart. Something that achieved 13M views in the 11 days since posting would show far higher velocity or twitter intensity.

twitter-1-jkwedding

twitter-1-jkwedding

9.  For a top-trending topic on twitter, there is usually correspondingly high search volume that is detectable.  At first glance, terms related to this viral video like “jkwedding” or “jk wedding dance” all seem to spike.  But if you put it against even “Corazon Aquino” (one of the top trending topics NOW on Twitter) those JK wedding search volumes are dwarfed.  (see chart below).

corazon-aquino-search-volume

10.  Google only reports 366 links to the video and most of them are not even important websites (see Alexa blue bar)

google-in-links-for-jkwedding-video

11.  The video itself has no honors and no stats (yet); YouTube stats are conveniently turned off. Other videos have their stats graphs publicly available.

no-honors-for-jk-wedding-video

12. see the fine print in the YouTube description — For more information or to make a donation towards violence prevention please visit our website: http://www.jkweddingdance.com/ – why would a normal wedding video ask people to make a donation towards violence prevention? (see screen capture below), the WHOIS record shows the domain jkweddingdance.com was created 29-Jul-09 — today is 31-Jul-09

Updated: This was circumstantial evidence. A source confirmed that Jill is studying patterns of violence propagation for her PhD. Their choice of charity was their own choice. And the site was set up to help that cause.

violence-prevention-chris-brown

whois-jkweddingdance-part1

whois-jkweddingdance-part2

Conclusion?  The video itself is real, made by those nice people in the wedding. They may not even realize why or how their wedding video went viral (and the tens of thousands of other wedding videos on YouTube did not). On the Today Show, “The couple told Lauer they were surprised at the video’s popularity” (also see NY Daily News article – http://bit.ly/OA3iG )

Related articles:

ReadWriteWeb – Build Profit Not DMCA Suits

WSJ – YouTube Declares Wedding Video a Financial Success

PSFK – Co-opting Viral Hits to Sell More Music

TechCrunch – YouTube: Viral Wedding Videos Are Great For Advertising

Huffington Post – Viral Wedding on YouTube Drives Buyers to Chris Brown Music

ClickZ -http://blog.clickz.com/090805-160921.html

What Viral Videos Look Like

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Friday, July 31st, 2009 analytics, viral videos 40 Comments

AdAge Top Viral Videos: all take 3 – 6 months to reach full viral effect

Samsung Sheep Viral Video – 2 months

samsung-sheep-viral-video

T-Mobile Dance viral video – 5 months

t-mobile-dance-viral-video

Cadbury Dancing Eyebrows Viral Video – 4 months

cadbury-eyebrows-viral-video

Geico Numa Numa Guy viral video – 3 months

numa-numa-guy-geico-viral-video

McDonalds Filet-o-Fish Viral Video – 5 months

mcdonalds-filet-o-fish-viral-video

etrade baby took 4 months to reach full viral

etrade-baby-viral-video

Super cameleon viral video took 3 months to reach full viral

super-chameleon-viral-video

Durex bunnies viral video took 3 months to reach full viral

durex-bunnies-viral-video

Dennys banana pancake viral video took 4 months to reach full viral

dennys-banana-pancake-viral-video

Lewist Hamilton Grand Prix took 2 months to reach viral

lewis-hamilton-grandprix-viral-video

the shape of the views curve is different for a NON-viral video — it just accumulates views over the years.

shape-of-a-non-viral-video-curve

link back to the original article showing 12 points that demonstrate why I think the JK Wedding video has a manufactured viral effect.

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Friday, July 31st, 2009 digital 1 Comment

What viral videos look like; what non-viral videos look like — by the stats

The first 2 are viral videos – notice the shape of the “total views curve” (quick rise and approaches the max asymptotically). The last 2 videos are not viral, and supported by paid advertising and promotion. It is a straight line that grows steadily over time. The 2 examples of non-viral videos were chosen simply to have similar view counts as the first and second examples.

Viral video examples – notice the asymptotic curve towards the max on the total views chart.

Frozen Grand Central ImprovEverywhere viral video – 18 million views – added on Jan 31, 2009.  “Other/viral” gave it its first big boost and embedded views gave it another big push.
frozen-grand-central-improveverywhere-viral

No Pants Subway Ride ImprovEverywhere viral video – 9 million views – uploaded January 13, 2009; got onto YouTube homepage and got a major boost from it.

no-pants-subway-ride-improveverywhere-viral

NON-viral video examples – notice the straight line of the total views chart.

corbin-bleu-non-viral-video

ashley-tisdale-non-viral-video

Perfect example of NON-viral video that had help with paid media – in this case, GoDaddy supported these videos with costly Superbowl ads — which led to nice bumps-up in total views.

godaddy-viral-non-viral-videos

In the case of Smirnoff’s Tea Partay, it was not supported by paid media so it took longer to grow and the shape of the curve is a nice blend between the straight line of a non-viral video and the asymptotic line of a viral video.

tea-partay-partially-viral-video

Finally, blatant ads don’t go viral – Sony’s grand central product demo stunt. And even if they are discussed in dozens of blogs it is not enough to get past the first tipping point.

sony-grand-central-stunt-video

How the JKWedding Viral Video was A Manufactured Success

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Friday, July 31st, 2009 digital 1 Comment

brands are no longer what advertisers say they are

brands are now what consumers say they are and what they tell their friends

•78.2% of Germans are irritated by advertising, only 24% actually still watches it (GfK Marktforschung)

•54% of US consumers avoids products & services which “overwhelm” with advertising (Yankelovich Partners)

•85% of Chinese stop watching TV during commercial breaks. More than half change the channel, while the rest do housework, eat, chat or use the bathroom. (McKinsey & Co.)

• 91% of consumers are likely to buy on reccomendation (source: http://www.slideshare.net/kameran/word-of-mouth-marketing-techniques-womm

Creating Buzz – Kameran Ahari Napa Consulting Group)

• Most influential information sources in purchasing electronic goods:WOM from friends & family 33%, newspaper coupons 25% magazines 4%, TV 4%, radio 3% (Source: CMO Council’s Retail Fluency Report, 2005)

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Friday, July 31st, 2009 digital No Comments

5akb8tw3dx

5akb8tw3dx

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Thursday, July 30th, 2009 digital No Comments

Digital Orchestration

digital orchestration means helping clients orchestrate and coordinate the activities of agencies that have particular specialties — search engine optimization (SEO), search engine marketing (SEM), website design and build, analytics, social marketing, etc. Too often, clients are not comfortable asking about digital or don’t know enough to tell if the agency specialists are recommending the correct strategy or tactic.

search consultants typically help individual clients find individual agencies that are good at a particular area — e.g. TV agency, digital agency, SEO agency, etc.  Today, this is no longer as effective because the different disciplines and specialities need to work closely together and feed off of each other to work properly.

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Thursday, July 30th, 2009 digital, integrated marketing, SEM, SEO No Comments

behavioral targeting works only in the brief research period leading up to the purchase

targeting based on a picture of their intent – by seeing what sites they visit; but this is limited to the time period relatively near the time of purchase – the length of time depends on the product (longer research period for larger ticket items)

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Thursday, July 30th, 2009 digital No Comments

viral videos that worked – drove sales

Awareness stage

- Smirnoff Tea Partay – white guys rapping; helped drive sales of the new product because it solved the awareness missing link for the product

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Thursday, July 30th, 2009 digital No Comments

Enthusiast digital cameras – super high-speed, high dynamic range, foveon direct capture

Casio superfast camera 1,200 frames per second

casio one is to capture slo mo (bullet blasting through apple)

Casio High-Speed Exilim EX-FC100 9 MP Digital Camera with 5x Optical Image Stabilized Zoom and 2.7-inch LCD (Black)


Sigma DP2 foveon 14 megapixel direct capture camera

foveon is to capture intricate fabric detail (every pixel has R, G, and B captured, not extrapolated)

Sigma DP2 14MP FOVEON CMOS Sensor Digital Camera with 2.5 Inch TFT LCD


Fuji super high dynamic range camera

Fuji’s CMOS sensor captures 2 shots in one – one low light and one high light, and smashes them together to

achieve a high dynamic range shot (previously you’d have to bracket the same shot yourself, and smash the shots together with software)

Fujifilm FinePix F200EXR 12MP Super CCD Digital Camera with 5x Wide Angle Dual Image Stabilized Optical Zoom

Ricoh GR Digital III

The wide-angle 28 mm/F1.9 GR Lens is all new, while the high-sensitivity 10-megapixel CCD and the GR Engine III image processor are likely evolutionary steps from the previous generation.

Nikon Coolpix S1000pj 12.1MP Digital Camera with Built-in Projector

Micro four thirds camera with interchangeable lenses

Olympus EP-1


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Thursday, July 30th, 2009 digital 2 Comments

Dr. Augustine Fou is Digital Consigliere to marketing executives, advising them on digital strategy and Unified Marketing(tm). Dr Fou has over 17 years of in-the-trenches, hands-on experience, which enables him to provide objective, in-depth assessments of their current marketing programs and recommendations for improving business impact and ROI using digital insights.

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