amp

A Predictable Failure: Kimberly-Clark Offering Kleenex Hand Towels

Source: http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=124023&nid=112103

Kleenex hand towels

“Kimberly-Clark’s Kleenex brand is offering an at-home version of a product that people take for granted in public restrooms: disposable hand towels. The new Kleenex Hand Towels are intended to address consumers’ growing concern with hand hygiene.

The product is on sale now with a retail price of about $3 for a box of 60 towels, per the company.

The Kleenex Hand Towels come in box packaging, with pop-up delivery. The product is intended to complement bathroom décor and space limitations — i.e., it can go on a towel bar or countertop.

Kleenex Hand Towels performed well in preliminary testing with consumers, the company says: Approximately two-thirds said they would use Kleenex Hand Towels as a substitute for cloth towels, and more than 90% reacted favorably to how the product and package design looked in their bathrooms.”

They used FOCUS GROUPS! And 2/3 said they would use! But think about it: $3 a box versus cloth towels I already have at home. At home, I don’t use disposable hand towels and at home I am not concerned about “hand hygiene” as I am in a public bathroom.

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Thursday, March 11th, 2010 Uncategorized No Comments

Apple vs Microsoft vs Sony [Graphs]

Source: http://feeds.gawker.com/~r/gizmodo/full/~3/fCC_TUnak8c/research-and-development-apple-vs-microsoft-vs-sony

The core of any long-standing technology company is research and development. Here’s how Apple, Microsoft and Sony’s last decade of spending stack up.

Note that the first graph shows research and development as a percentage of revenue (to scale the spending by company, since revenues differ so greatly). This next graphic can help you conceptualize the revenue and R&D gap:

A Few Interesting Notes:

• Now, Microsoft spends about 17% of their revenue on R&D. Sony spends about 8%. Apple spends less than 4%.

• If you were to break down the amount of R&D that goes purely to physical (non-software) products sold by Apple and Sony, Sony would spend about $11.5 million per product while Apple would spend about $78.5 million per product. (Of course, that’s rolling the cost OS X and iPhone OS development into Macs and the iPhone, which could be seen as inflating their per product spending.)

• Microsoft just spends a lot of money in R&D, period—about $9 billion last year in generalized research (that often doesn’t lead to specific products). In terms of percentage growth over the last decade, Apple’s R&D has grown the most (nearly quadrupled) while Sony’s has grown the least (not quite doubled).

In light of these bare numbers, is it any surprise that Sony is struggling the most to capture the hearts and minds of a public hungry for gadgets?

Sources:

Apple
Apple Public Relations
Apple Investor Relations
Apple Insider 2004
Apple Insider 2005
Apple Insider 2006
Apple Insider 2008
Mac Observer
Microsoft
Microsoft Investor Relations
Sony
Sony Investor Relations

Research by David Chaid

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Monday, March 8th, 2010 Uncategorized No Comments

Please Euthanize This Big Boy Already – How Lack of Innovation Killed Another Giant

Not only did the shift towards digital communication cause a continuing decline in revenues, the lack of innovation caused the U.S. Postal Service to fall far behind able competitors like FedEx, UPS, etc. (lowering prices is not innovation; and delivering 3 days a week is not innovation either.) We are at a point now where if the USPS disappeared, consumers will shift their remaining habits towards digital and existing delivery competitors will (gladly) absorb the incremental business (because they already work the routes anyway, and can even lower prices due to extra volume).

Source: http://bit.ly/9RHDtQ (BusinessWeek)

March 4 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Postal Service, facing a $238 billion budget deficit by 2020, should consider cutting delivery to as few as three days a week as the agency attempts to pare costs, a consulting firm said.

Those cuts are among changes McKinsey & Co. presented in a report this week at a postal conference in Washington. Options also included expanding business lines and restructuring retiree health benefits.

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Friday, March 5th, 2010 Uncategorized No Comments

Evian baby viral video has much higher ROI than Etrade baby superbowl ad

The Evian baby viral ad (red spike) got almost as much search volume as eTrade’s Superbowl ad of 2009 (blue spike). But Evian paid millions less by skipping the expense of airing the video on traditional media; instead they just posted it to YouTube for free. But notice that in both cases the effect was ephemeral (not long lasting) — notice the narrowness of the spike. Interest in the viral video also subsided quickly. But at least Evian didn’t waste millions on producing and airing it — thus achieving a massively larger ROI than Etrade who paid to make the ads and then air it at great expense on the Superbowl for the last 3 years.

etrade-baby-vs-evian-baby

Etrade Baby Ad

Evian Baby Viral Video

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Wednesday, February 24th, 2010 Branding, analytics, search No Comments

Twenty-four telecom operators unite to form Wholesale Applications Community

Source: http://www.engadget.com/2010/02/15/twenty-four-telecom-operators-unite-to-form-wholesale-applicatio/

Big doings over in Barcelona today. Twenty-four telecom operators, with the support of the GSMA and three major hardware manufacturers, have formally announced they will come together to form the Wholesale Applications Community. Essentially, the goal of the alliance will be to create a viable, cohesive and open industry platform for mobile app developers. Members of the Community will include AT&T, China Mobile, China Unicom, Deutsche Telekom, NTT DoCoMo, Orange, TeliaSonera, Sprint, Verizon Wireless, and Vodafone among others, and they’ll be supported in their endeavors by LG, Samsung and Sony Ericsson. The total customers of the group is about 3 billion, giving WAC (our name) some considerable — albeit theoretical for the moment — power. The group plans to work on coming up with a standard for working across platforms over the next twelve months. WAC’s website just went live a bit ago — there’s a link to it below — and the full press release is after the break.

Continue reading Twenty-four telecom operators unite to form Wholesale Applications Community

Twenty-four telecom operators unite to form Wholesale Applications Community originally appeared on Engadget on Mon, 15 Feb 2010 05:06:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Monday, February 15th, 2010 Uncategorized No Comments

The 22 Immutable Laws No Longer Apply

By Augustine Fou, ClickZ, Feb 4, 2010

The habits of modern consumers and their expectations have so drastically changed the landscape into which marketing and advertising campaigns are launched that what held true in the “golden age of advertising” no longer holds true at this, the dawn of the “golden age of the individual.”

In the classic “The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing,” Al Ries and Jack Trout expound on laws that are rooted in the ability to use storytelling to weave spellbinding brands and evoke emotion-filled loyalty. However, as the balance of power shifted away from advertisers to the people they used to target, the game has changed.

Increasingly, individuals prefer to do their own research rather than just take advertisers’ word for it. Individuals need greater levels of detailed information than can be conveyed in a :30 spot, a one page ad, or a radio spot. More individuals are empowered with information that is likely to have been created by other individuals (e.g., product reviews, blog posts) instead of advertisers.

Read on  22 Immutable Laws no Longer Apply

LaraMSi hope b-schools are listening! http://ow.ly/14QX8

BrennaEliseReading: The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply http://bit.ly/azMzyH

R_OtterstromRT @oliversudotcom: The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – what do you think about this article? http://ow.ly/15xj1

oliversudotcomThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – what do you think about this article? http://ow.ly/15xj1

acfouImmutable Law 5: Own a word in the prospect’s mind – what’s Apple? great design, ease-of-use, music, or computers? – http://bit.ly/aRfkiY

coopermediaonly“The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply” – http://ow.ly/15hQj

connectwithcoop“The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply” – http://ow.ly/15hQa

jeetblogThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – http://www.clickz.com/3636379

dougdavidoff@toddsattersten I had the same feeling about it (http://tinyurl.com/yjye2fl )

dougdavidoff@toddsattersten did you read this: http://tinyurl.com/yjye2fl? Interesting take on applicability of Immutable Laws.

KKilnerRT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

bottreeRT @tweetmeme The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

inggitaRT @durjoy: My pal Augustine Fou @ClickZ skewers the 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing: http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

acfouWhich too-clever-for-anyone, too-over-the-top-sleazy, or too-brand-perfumey-that-it-makes-me-gag ads did u see ystrday? http://bit.ly/aRfkiY

ntortorellaThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply http://bit.ly/9DZhYs

sluuAn interesting blog about how The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply http://bit.ly/bb8MOd – (via @clickz)

TechValidateVery interesting read. Classic marketing dogma is not true anymore. The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply. http://ow.ly/14QX8

durjoyMy pal Augustine Fou @ClickZ skewers the 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing: http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

TobyDivaaugustine fou looks at marketing thru a social lens & updates ries & trout’s 22 rules http://ow.ly/153oo

IdeafoodARTICLE: The 22 immutable laws of marketing no longer apply. http://bit.ly/kent914 (via @KentHuffman)

AIM2meRT @clickz Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply http://bit.ly/bb8MOd but don’t forget the basics http://bit.ly/bmIIDF

acfouImmutable Law 3: advertisers often misinterpret that they can buy their way into the prospects’ minds by shouting loud http://bit.ly/aRfkiY

andressilvaa@warpx These Marketing Laws are very good and excellent tips: http://bit.ly/kent914 (via @KentHuffman)

andressilvaa@warpx These Marketing Laws are very good excellent tips: http://bit.ly/kent914 (via @KentHuffman)

davidhughanThe 22 immutable laws of #marketing no longer apply by @ClickZ http://bit.ly/c56rVy

jack2ussrDo you really believe? ;) @ramonthomas The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply http://www.clickz.com/3636379

subbuu22 Immutable Laws of Marketing no longer applies http://j.mp/92GpRz Controversy brewing…

jannekorpiGreat article – How the laws of marketing have changed http://bit.ly/azMzyH

azalec22 Immutable Laws of Marketing no longer apply; balance of power has shifted from advertisers to those being targeted. http://bit.ly/91w7Yk

tfanelliInteresting read – The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ: http://www.clickz.com/3636379

MarySicardBlasphemy! “The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply,” says Augustine Fou. http://twurl.nl/dnvzqq

hainguyenVThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – Augustine Fou. Interesting post http://bit.ly/azMzyH

astridguillonRT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

LaunchiteThe immutable laws of marketing, re-examined in the digital/social media age http://bit.ly/bTDPK8

DCCommercialREThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd http://fb.me/5k34bZe

HAustinERT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

oliversudotcomRT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

lohhw3RT @brandconsultant: Brilliant article on the death of #positioning http://bit.ly/azMzyH #advertising #malaysia #singapore #indonesia

thebfceWithTwitter, stupidity spreads even faster…The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

brandconsultantBrilliant article on the death of #positioning http://bit.ly/azMzyH #advertising #malaysia #singapore #indonesia

andressilvaa@warpx They are very good Marketing Laws: http://bit.ly/kent914 (via @KentHuffman)

Vanessa_BrightThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://ow.ly/14G6g

steve_suttonRT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

SweetLoveGiftsA must read! RT @clickz via @jimcaruso: The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

Vanessa_BrightRT @KentHuffman: The 22 immutable laws of marketing no longer apply: http://bit.ly/kent914

samanthastoneRT @DebbieMarchok. RT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

michaelredwoodRT @DebbieMarchok: RT @marketing_chief Shaking it up. RT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

DebbieMarchokRT @marketing_chief Shaking it up. RT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

jimcarusoRT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

vivosityRT @GuyKawasaki: How immutable are the immutable laws of marketing? http://ow.ly/1o9Y82

MarketingRagRT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply. Augustine Fou takes them apart on ClickZ. http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

faragodgRT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

veneredimiloRT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

rCrosbySticklesThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://www.clickz.com/3636379

brandconsultantFinally someone else who believes positioning & other mass economy models no longer apply http://bit.ly/azMzyH #marketing #positioning

RellyMeltzerThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply http://www.clickz.com/3636379

acfouNo one knows you, the small fish in a big pond? Make a new pond? The mktng problem then becomes no one knows your pond: http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

italianpassionRT @andressilvaa: ARTICLE: The 22 immutable laws of marketing no longer apply. http://bit.ly/kent914 (via @KentHuffman)

apkalnsEven “The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing” evolve & transform: http://www.clickz.com/3636379 #marketing #change

andressilvaaARTICLE: The 22 immutable laws of marketing no longer apply. http://bit.ly/kent914 (via @KentHuffman)

ChrisCopywriterhttp://www.clickz.com/3636379 http://fb.me/58F8vCW

UKSEOSpecialistThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply http://bit.ly/azMzyH

vvpreethamThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://ow.ly/14wJp

saintmoonriverRT @ramonthomas: Al Ries and Jack Trout’s The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply http://www.clickz.com/3636379

ramonthomasAl Ries and Jack Trout’s The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply http://www.clickz.com/3636379

markvanbaale“Traditional “push” advertising is like a thief breaking into your home at dinnertime and shouting at your family” – http://bit.ly/azMzyH

nickwredenWhy “positioning” theory &”22 immutable laws” are no longer true & will hurt your brand. Great Clickz article. http://bit.ly/azMzyH

AbsatzlehreBy @-davidhughan Great read: The 22 immutable laws of #-marketing no longer apply by @ClickZ http://bit.ly/c56rVy

davidhughanGreat read: The 22 immutable laws of #marketing no longer apply by @ClickZ http://bit.ly/c56rVy

jennycoupeThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ: http://www.clickz.com/3636379 via @addthis

TimCohnThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/aOMY3Q

jpoloObserving: “The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ”, http://bit.ly/baH32k

MichaelMyersThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing that No Longer Apply: http://bit.ly/azMzyH

CarrieK_IEGRT @KMGDePaul: Why the 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply http://ow.ly/1o9Y82

KMGDePaulWhy the 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply http://ow.ly/1o9Y82

KenRobbinsRT @kraigguffey: RT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

CavalierPaleRT @elneco The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

elnecootra visión a las clásicas “22 leyes inmutables del mkt” http://www.clickz.com/3636379

webexecutivesMARKETING: @acfou’s take on how and why the first 7 of “The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing” have changed (http://j.mp/aFxKrP ).

RogersParkCoCRT @whatworks: How the Laws of Marketing Have Changed http://ow.ly/14mSC (via ClickZ)

normbondThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/a8bbGa

fishermarketingExcellent! RT @whatworks How the Laws of Marketing Have Changed http://ow.ly/14mSC (via ClickZ)

AnibalDoRosarioGolden Age of Ads Laws no longer valid in Golden Age Of The Individual “The 22 Laws of Marketing” no longer applicable: http://bit.ly/bGert9

whatworksHow the Laws of Marketing Have Changed http://ow.ly/14mSC (via ClickZ)

vickysjonesThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply http://bit.ly/acONli

bmelchiorThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply http://bit.ly/acONli

MCNAffiliatesRT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

manfredkisslingThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ: http://www.clickz.com/3636379 via @addthis

hbgcoachingRT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

steprincipatoRT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd #marketing

gburkeThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply (Part 1, Rules 1-7) http://bit.ly/90f8Us

gregg_makuchChallenge conventional wisdom – The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – http://bit.ly/azMzyH

shaziaparwezRT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

ForwardProIt’s always time to rethink marketing: http://bit.ly/acONli

pamdyer“The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing” revisited http://bit.ly/btL7VC Column: They no longer apply in new landscape

jasoncerconeThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply http://bit.ly/azMzyH

nickromRT @tweetmeme The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

dancommatorThe 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply #marketing #marketingstrategy http://bit.ly/azMzyH

CGFSyncresisRT @clickz The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply – ClickZ http://bit.ly/bb8MOd

Dan_AgnewPeople still arguing “The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing,” but it’s still great food for thought: http://bit.ly/acONli

acfouFALSE: 1st Immutable Law – It is better to be first than it is to be better; today it is better to be better – http://bit.ly/aRfkiY

DaintyNinjaHow the laws that governed the “golden age of advertising” are no longer valid in this “golden age of the individual.” http://bit.ly/acONli

craiglandesNice work: The 22 Immutable Laws No Longer Apply in the “golden age of the consumer” @acfouhttp://bit.ly/aRfkiY

FiurInformationTraditional marketers making the shift take note! The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing No Longer Apply (http://bit.ly/acONli ) #in

acfouThe 22 Immutable Laws No Longer Apply in the “golden age of the consumer” @acfouhttp://bit.ly/aRfkiY

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Tuesday, February 9th, 2010 Uncategorized No Comments

20% Off the Top [Cable]

Source: http://feeds.gawker.com/~r/gizmodo/full/~3/Pd_ZwieTFHc/our-price-of-tv-loyalty-20-off-the-top

For a 20% savings, more than 50% cable and satellite subscribers are likely to jump ship to save money. But Telco TV (services like AT&T U-verse) have a much, much more loyal following. Anecdotally, would you agree? [Multiplayblog via engadgetHD]

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Monday, February 8th, 2010 Uncategorized No Comments

Why Job Seekers Should Worry About Their Online Reputation

Source: http://www.labnol.org/internet/online-reputation-important-for-jobs/12582/

If you are looking for a job or are a potential job-seeker, be very careful of what you write or share online because HR departments and recruitment professionals are scanning tweets, blog posts, photos, and other online profiles of job candidates before offering them positions.

Why Online Reputation Management is Important

Around 70% of hiring managers in in US have rejected candidate just because of their online reputation. The chart looks at the various types of online information that have led companies to reject candidates.

Why Companies Reject Candidates

Tomorrow is Data Privacy Day and this research (download PPT) was originally commissioned by Microsoft as part of the same initiative.

Other than Microsoft, Google, Intel, AT&T are also part of the Data Privacy Day group. You should also check their site as it contains some excellent resources on how companies, students and parents can better protect their online information.

Why Job Seekers Should Worry About Their Online Reputation

Originally published at Digital Inspiration by Amit Agarwal.

Facebook    Twitter    Technology Blog

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Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010 Uncategorized No Comments

Source: http://feeds.gawker.com/~r/gizmodo/full/~3/MJm1kyfrSFM/why-the-ipad-will-crush-netbooks-and-ebook-readers

Now that we’ve seen the iPad in the light of day, there’s a lot of chatter about what it can’t do. But Apple is now a massive threat to netbooks and ebook readers. Here’s why:

Generally speaking, the iPad’s goal is not to replace your netbook, assuming you own and love one. It’s not about replacing your Kindle either, assuming you cashed in for that as well. We have reviewed plenty of both, and know there’s plenty to like. If you derive pleasure out of using either, then Apple might have a hard time convincing you to switch to the iPad. But for the millions of people who aren’t on either bandwagon, yet have the money and interest in a “third” device between the phone and the computer, the iPad will have greater appeal.

250 Million iPods Earlier…

When the first iPod came out, its goal was not to grab the customers who Creative and Archos were fighting over, with their dueling 6GB “jukeboxes.” It was to grab everyone else. I remember listening to arguments about why Archos had a better device than Creative or even Apple. Lot of good that early-adopter love got them in the long run. The pocket media player market exploded, with Apple eating over half the pie consistently for almost a decade.

When the iPhone came out, BlackBerry users were like, “No flippin’ way.” And guess what, those people still buy BlackBerries. (And why shouldn’t they? Today’s BlackBerry is still great, and hardly distinguishable from the BB of 2007.) The point is, the iPhone wasn’t designed to win the hearts and minds of people who already knew their way around a smartphone. It came to convince people walking around with Samsung and LG flip phones that there was more to life. And it worked.

iPhones now account for more than half of AT&T’s phone sales. You can bet that WinMo, Palm and BB combined weren’t doing that kind of share pre-iPhone. Globally, the smartphone business grew from a niche thing for people in suits to being a 180-million unit per year business, says Gartner, eclipsing the entire notebook business—about 20% of which, I might add, are netbooks. The iPhone isn’t the sole driver of this growth, of course, but its popularity has opened many new doors for the category. Just ask anyone in the business of developing/marketing/selling Droids or Palm Pres.

You could say, “Those were Apple’s successes, what about their failures?” In the second age of Steve Jobs, there aren’t a whole lot. Apple TV is the standout—quite possibly because Apple discovered, after releasing the product, that there wasn’t a big enough market for it, or any of its competitors. Apple TV may be crowded out by connected Blu-ray players, home-theater PCs and HD video players, but Apple TV’s niche is, to this day, almost frustratingly unique.

So how do you know if a market exists? You ask the “other” Steve, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer.

It’s Business Time

There’s a famous Ballmerism, one he’s even said to me, that goes something like, “A business isn’t worth entering unless the sales potential is 50 million units or more.” 50 million. That’s why Ballmer is happy to go into the portable media player business and the game console business, but laughs about ebook readers. Microsoft may not sell 50 million Zunes, but it’s worth being a contender.

You can bet Apple thinks this way. You can easily argue that, despite its sheen of innovation, Apple is far more conservative than Microsoft. Apple TV is a bit of an anomaly, but with no major hardware refreshes and a few small-minded software updates, you can hardly accuse Apple of throwing good money after bad. Presumably Apple TV was a learning experience for Jobs & Co., one they’re not likely to repeat.

With that in mind, let’s look particularly at netbooks and ebook readers.

Like Notebooks, Only Littler

Netbooks are cooking, but it’s well known they’re cooking because notebooks are not. A netbook was originally conceived as something miraculously small and simple, running Linux with a warm fuzzy interface that dear old gran could use to bone up on pinochle before Friday’s showdown with the Rosenfelds. But instead of growing outward to this new audience (always with the grandmothers, it seems), it grew inward, cannibalizing real PC sales.

The Linux fell away, mostly because it was ill-conceived, and these simply became tiny, cheap, limited-function Windows PCs. They may have been a 40-million-unit business last year, according to DisplaySearch, but they only got cheaper, and the rest of the business was so depressed nobody was happy. (And just ask Ballmer how much he makes on those XP licenses, or even the “low-powered OS” that is Windows 7 Starter.)

Point is, nerds may love their netbooks, but the market that the netbook originally set out to reach is too far away, running farther away and screaming louder with every blog post about what chipset and graphics processor a netbook is rumored to have, or whether or not it is, indeed, a netbook at all. Clearly the audience is cheap geeks, and while that may be a good market to be in (just read Giz comments), it’s definitively not Steve Jobs’ market.

Easy on the Eyes

Now, about that Kindle. Best ebook reader out there. Every time we say that, we say it with a wink. We totally respect the Kindle (and I for one have hopes for Nook once it pulls itself out of the firmware mess it’s in), but we think e-ink is a limited medium.

Its functionality is ideal for a very specific task—simulating printed words on paper—and for that I have always sung its praise. The Kindle is ideal for delivering and serving up those kinds of books, and as a voracious reader of those kinds of books, I am grateful for its existence. But there are other kinds of books of which I am a consumer: Cookbooks, children’s books and comic books. (Notice, they all end in “book.”) The Kindle can’t do any of those categories well at all, because they are highly graphical. E-ink’s slow-refreshing, difficult-to-resize grayscale images are pretty much hideous. No big deal for the compleat Dickens, but too feeble to take on my dog-eared, saffron-stained Best-Ever Curry Cookbook.

So, e-ink’s known weaknesses aside, let’s talk again about Ballmer’s favorite number, 50 million. Guess how many Kindles are estimated to have been sold ever since the very first one launched? 2.5 million. Nobody knows for sure because Amazon won’t release the actual figures. Guess how many ebook readers are supposedly going to sell this year, according to Forrester? Roughly 6 million. In a year. Compare that to 21 million iPods sold last quarter, along with 9 million iPhones.

I am not suggesting that the iPod or iPhone is a worthwhile replacement for reading, but I am saying that, for better or worse, there are probably at least 2.5 million iPod or iPhone users who read books on those devices.

Are you starting to see the larger picture here? I am not trying to convince you to buy an Apple iPad, I am trying to explain to you why you probably will anyway. As the Kindle fights just to differentiate itself while drowning in a milk-white e-ink sea of God-awful knockoffs, you’ll see that color screen shining in the distance.

Sure the iPad may not be as easy on the eyes as a Kindle. But you will be able to read in bed without an additional light source. You will be able to read things online without banging your head against a wall to get to the right page. And, once the publishers get their acts together, you will be able to enjoy comics, cookbooks, and children’s books, with colorful images. Even before you set them into motion, dancing around the screen, they’ll look way better than they would on e-ink. (I haven’t even mentioned magazines, but once that biz figures out what to do with this thing, they will make it work, because they need color screens, preferably touchscreens.)

Tide Rollin’ In

So we have this new device, carefully planned by a company with a unique ability to reach new markets. And we have two types of products that have effectively failed to reach those markets. And you’re going to bet on the failures? The iPad has shortcomings, but they only betray Apple’s caution, just like what happened with iPhone No. 1. Now every 15-year-old kid asks for an iPhone, and the ones that don’t get them get iPod Touches.

We can sit here in our geeky little dorkosphere arguing about it all day, but as much as Apple clearly enjoys our participation, the people Jobs wants to sell this to don’t read our rants. They can’t even understand them. My step-mother refuses to touch computers, but nowadays checks email, reads newspapers and plays Solitaire on an iPod Touch, after basically picking it up by accident one day. That’s a future iPad user if I ever saw one.

Jobs doesn’t care about the netbook business, or the ebook business. He’s just aiming for the same people they were aiming at. The difference is, he’s going to reach them. And the fight will be with whoever enters into the tablet business with him. Paging Mr. Ballmer…

PS – If I’ve gotten to the end of this lengthy piece without telling you much about the iPad at all, it’s because other Giz staffers have already done such a handsome job of that already. If you missed out, here are the best four links to get you up to speed:

Apple iPad: Everything You Need To Know

Apple iPad First Hands On

Apple iPad Just Tried to Assassinate Laptops

8 Things That Suck About Apple iPad

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Thursday, January 28th, 2010 Uncategorized No Comments

AT&T Underinvesting in Infrastructure

Source: http://feeds.gawker.com/~r/gizmodo/full/~3/UVsXkqW77EA/att-has-spent-less-on-network-construction-every-quarter-since-the-iphones-launch

If you like your links hyper, here is that AP story, AT&T’s financial sheet [PDF], and the post in which Fake Steve Jobs originally pointed out this disparity. Namaste.


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Thursday, December 17th, 2009 Uncategorized No Comments