average

It’s Unbelievable How Similar This Market Is Compared To The Average Election Year

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-sp-500-during-election-years-2012-11

Here’s an interesting chart from Bespoke Investment Group that Jeff Saut included in his weekly market commentary.

It marks the average election performance of the S&P 500 and compares it to the index this year.

It’s remarkable.

“[T]he Presidential trading pattern identified by our friends at the brainy Bespoke organization indicates stocks should firm from here,” writes Saut.

election year market

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Monday, November 5th, 2012 news No Comments

Source: http://gizmodo.com/5882027/sharing-with-friends-of-friends-on-facebook-exposes-you-to-150000-people

Sharing with "Friends of Friends" on Facebook Exposes You to 150,000 PeopleWell this is mildly terrifying: according to a new Pew study, the Facebook privacy mode a lot of us rely on for photos and status updates is, on average, anything but private. Time to reconsider your settings, everyone.

The finding is staggering—Friends of Friends can hit as many as over seven million people:

Facebook users can reach an average of more than 150,000 Facebook users through their Facebook friends; the median user can reach about 31,000 others. At two degrees of separation (friends-of-friends), Facebook users in our sample can on average reach 156,569 other Facebook users. However, the relatively small number of users with very large friends lists, who also tended to have lists that are less interconnected, overstates the reach of the typical Facebook user. In our sample, the maximum reach was 7,821,772 other Facebook users. The median user (the middle user from our sample) can reach 31,170 people through their friends-of-friends.

When you think friend of a friend, the IRL analogue comes to mind. Your buddy’s buddy. That guy you met at a bar who seems okay. Your girlfriend’s pals from college. They must be okay people, right? They’re so narrowly removed from you, why not share all your photos with them?

Because 150,000+ people includes a hell of a lot of strangers you probably shouldn’t trust, and certainly don’t (and will never) know personally. You can read the study in its entirety below. [Pew]

PIP Facebook Users 2.3.12

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Friday, February 3rd, 2012 Uncategorized No Comments

Education Spending Doesn’t Solve Education Problems

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/education-spending-doesnt-always-mean-great-graduation-rates-2012-1


Education spending varies dramatically from state to state, and there are distinct regional differences. The desert West, the old cotton South and the northern Plains states spend the least per-student on elementary and secondary education. 

But spending by itself doesn’t necessarily create great results. Though Utah spends the least per-pupil on education annually, it isn’t near the bottom in graduation rates. The District of Columbia spends almost twice the national average per pupil but graduates just 55 percent of its students.

spending per pupil by state

DON’T MISS: the opinions at ‘THE GREAT DEBATE: What’s Wrong With Education In America?’ >

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Saturday, January 7th, 2012 news No Comments

Apple And Google Get A Record Breaking Christmas (AAPL, GOOG)

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-apple-and-google-get-a-record-breaking-christmas-2011-12


Apple and Google activated a record breaking number of mobile devices this Christmas, according to Flurry analytics, which delivers mobile analytics to developers. Flurry has 140,000 apps running its software, and believes it can track every new Android or iOS device activated.

Between December 1 and 20, 1.5 million Android and iOS devices were activated daily on average. On Christmas day, a record breaking 6.8 million devices were activated, a 353% increase over the rest of the month. It’s also much better than 2010, when 2.8 million devices were activated.

Don’t miss: The First 15 iPhone Apps You Must Download

chart of the day, iphone android acrtiviations on christmas, dec 27 2011

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Tuesday, December 27th, 2011 news No Comments

Here’s The Math Formula For Structuring A Groupon Deal That Doesn’t Lose Money (GRPN)

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-the-math-formula-for-structuring-a-groupon-deal-that-doesnt-lose-money-2011-12


groupon cupcake girl

We’ve all heard the nightmare stories about Groupon merchants who lost tons of money because they were suddenly overwhelmed with thousands of customers whom they were forced to serve at a loss: The British bakery that made 102,000 cupcakes. The Irish hairdressers whose customer base now consists entirely of people who only want their hair cut a discount. The Portland cafe that lost $8,000 because the owner failed to cap the number of deals she offered.

It’s not just Groupon, of course. There are loads of other daily deal sites — Living Social, Thrillist, Google Offers, etc — but they all present merchants with the same problem: The conflict between offering below-cost deals to customers in hopes of attracting long-term “regulars” and structuring a deal so that you can still make a profit. The math can be tricky because merchants have to account for two different sets of discounts: The discount to the customer and share of the payment taken by the daily deal site for publicizing the offer.

Now TheDealMix, a site that aggregates daily deals into an impressively complicated map of your neighborhood, has produced an infographic that can help businesses calculate daily deal offers so th! at they won’t accidentally go bankrupt.

And, yes, The DealMix has presented its formulas in the form of cupcakes — particularly useful given the number of bakery-related Groupon disasters that have made the headlines.

The formulas include:

Offer Price – Cost of Goods > $0

Average Customer Spend – Value of Offer + Price > Cost of Goods

See the rest of the story at Business Insider

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Monday, December 12th, 2011 news No Comments

A Look at Smartphone Search

Source: http://blog.compete.com/2011/10/21/picking-blackberries-online-a-look-at-smartphone-search/

Lasse Kristensen/Shutterstock

I once owned a Blackberry.  I liked BBM, that blinking red light and being able to tell everyone that my messages were “encrypted.” That was until I owned an iPhone. Now we have all heard the debate, Mac or PC, iPhone or Blackberry, Firefox or Internet Explorer… everyone has their reasons and I have mine.

Each phone has their unique features, but no matter which device is actually better, people are continuing to buy Smartphones.

Looking on compete.com I searched the keyword “smartphone”. My search showed that the top 25 search referrals are:

Sites referred to by smartphone from 07/19/2011 – 10/17/2011 Industry Category Volume Paid Share Natural Share Avg. Site Referrals
11 wikipedia.org Dictionary/Thesaurus/Encyclopedia 1.46% 0.00% 100.00% 198,529,152
12 facebook.com Personal Networking 1.44% 0.00% 100.00% 525,556,662
13 toptenreviews.com Mass Merchant and Department Store 1.37% 0.00% 100.00% 873,586
14 blackberry.com OEMs 1.32% 28.75% 71.25% 889,982
15 youtube.com Videos 1.13% 245,958,844
16 wirefly.com Wireless Agent 1.12% 100.00% 0.00% 679,820
17 walmart.com Mass Merchant and Department Store 1.09% 16,755,011
18 zdnet.com Technology 1.08% 0.00% 100.00% 573,968
19 samsung.com OEMs 1.08% 1,247,624
20 apple.com Electronics 0.88% 100.00% 0.00% 11,020,105

Looking at the top 25 search referrals we find that Blackberry.com sees more visitors searching for smartphones, than Apple.com does. Apple.com has 100% paid search referrals for the keyword “smartphone” and Blackberry.com has 28.75% paid search referrals.

Looking at Average Site Referrals we see that Apple.com sees approximately 11 thousand site referrals and Blackberry.com sees approximately 900 thousand.

With such a large number of people searching for smartphones, the competition is as fierce as ever.

Looking at Average Stay and Pages/Visit for Apple.com we can see that people stay on the site for about 6 minutes and look at about 5 pages.

Looking at Average Stay and Pages/Visit for Blackberry.com we can see that the average stay is higher at about 8 minutes and look at about 7 pages.

Are people spending more time on Blackberry.com because there are more options? Do people know what product they want when visiting apple.com spending less time?

While I love my iPhone and have retired my Blackberry, Smartphones are the smartest option for people who want to be connected wherever they are.


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Friday, October 28th, 2011 news No Comments

Stop paying Kim Kardashian $10,000 per tweet – She’s NOT Influential if no one re-tweets

Source:  AdAge.com

Yahoo Scientist Questions ROI of Kardashian’s Sponsored TweetsDuncan Watts Explains His Model for Predicting Value of Influencers on Twitter

Ad Age Digital Conference

NEW YORK (AdAge.com) — Stop paying Kim Kardashian $10,000 per tweet. That’s the recommendation based on the work of Yahoo’s principal research scientist Duncan Watts, who presented his findings at Advertising Age’s DigitalConference.

“If you recruit enough people who, on average, influence just one other person, you could get a much better return on investment if you aggregated them and altogether paid them a tenth of what Kardashian gets.”

But in looking at influencers, Mr. Watts found that it’s incredibly hard to predict who will be a major factor on Twitter, a conclusion that runs counter to the prevailing wisdom of social epidemics popularized by the book “The Tipping Point.” While he acknowledges there are certain personalities such as Kim Kardashian who can potentially trigger a larger cascade of re-tweets given her large amount of “followers” (“Tipping Point” enthusiasts call her a connector), close studies of social platforms reveal that influence is spread more efficiently and more reliably when done through many-to-many connections, rather than through a few highly connected individuals.

“Most of them will send tweets, and no one else re-tweets,” Mr. Watts said. “A lot of times, not that many people are listening on Twitter.”

More supporting details here: http://www.marketingcharts.com/direct/celeb-twitter-followers-have-low-authority-13297

Celeb Twitter Followers Have Low Authority

While celebrities have high numbers of Twitter followers, those followers usually have minimal reach and influence, according to social media consulting firm Sysomos.

Celebrity Followers Offer More Quantity than Quality
Celebrities seem to have large amounts of followers with low Twitter authority levels (see “About the Data” for more information on how authority levels are determined). Of five celebrities examined, the average follower of President Barack Obama had the highest authority rating on a scale of 0 to 10, 2.4. The most common authority score among Obama’s roughly 4.2 million followers is 1, held by 20%.

sysomos-twitter-celeb-june-2010.jpg

Interestingly, the celebrity whose fans had the second-highest authority score of 2.1, pop singer Lady Gaga, had the second-lowest following of about 4.5 million. The most common authority score of followers of all celebrities except Obama was 0.

Actor Ashton Kutcher had the highest number of followers (about 5.1 million), and the third-highest average authority score (1.8). Pop singer Britney Spears had the lowest average follower authority score (1.3) and second-highest number of followers (about 4.8 million).

Celebrities seem to have large amounts of followers with low Twitter authority levels. This could be because they attract everyone from all walks of life. Some people may only be on Twitter to see what their favorite stars have to tweet about. In addition, most celebrity followers tracked by Sysomos had few followers themselves, pushing down their authority scores.

Social Media Heavyweight Followers Have Most Authority
Social media heavyweights, private citizens who have made a name for themselves on Twitter, had the fewest followers but the highest average authority scores for their followers. Following the pattern seen with celebrity tweeters, the social media heavyweight with the fewest followers, Jason Falls (27,195), had the highest average follower authority score (4.8).

sysomos-twitter-heavyweights-june-2010.jpg

Conversely, the two social media heavyweights with the most followers, Chris Brogan (139,693) and Jeremiah Owyang (64,775), tied for the lowest average follower authority score of 4. The most common authority score for all social media heavyweight followers was either 4 or 5.

Online Media Beats Traditional Media
On the whole, the five news/media sources tracked by Sysomos show more variety among their scores than the celebrities or social media heavyweights. However, online media sources attracted fewer followers with higher average authority scores than traditional media sources.

sysomos-twitter-newsmedia-june-2010.jpg

Online media source Read Write Web, with about 1 million followers, had an average follower authority score of 3, which was also its most common follower authority score (19%). This tied online media source Mashable in average authority score, most common authority score and percentage of followers with the most common authority score. Mashable has more followers with about 2 million.

Online media source Tech Crunch ties traditional media source Time.com with an average follower authority of 2.4 and most common follower authority score of 2, at virtually the same percentage. However, Time.com has significantly more total followers (2.1 million) than Tech Crunch (1.4 million).

Traditional media source New York Times has the highest total number of followers (about 2.5 million) and lowest average authority score (2.2). It also has by far the lowest most common authority score of 0 (22%). Not surprisingly, sources that specialize in social media attract users that are more active on Twitter.

Facebook Fans More Valuable Customers
While there is variation in the value of different types of Twitter followers, on the whole Facebook fans of a brand provide more value as customers than non-fans, according to a new study from digital consulting firm Syncapse Corp.

The average value a Facebook fan provides a brand is $136.38, but it can swing to $270.77 in the best case or go down to $0 in the worst. This value is based on Syncapse analysis of five factors per fan: product spending, brand loyalty, propensity to recommend, brand affinity and earned media value.

On average, a Facebook fan participates with a brand 10 times a year and will make one recommendation. Value can differ significantly by individual brand. For example, in the case of Coca- Cola, the best case for fan value reaches $316.78 but is $137.84 for an average fan. In the worse case scenario, a fan is worth $0.

About the Data: Using its social media monitoring and analytics platform, Sysomos looked at the authority rankings of five celebrities, five social media heavyweights and five media organizations. Rankings were based on the kind of Twitter users following these celebrities, social media heavyweights and media organizations. Each Twitter user is assigned an authority ranking between 0 to 10 – with 10 signifying someone with very high reach and influence. This authority ranking is based on the number of followers, following, updates, retweets and several similar measures used by Sysomos.

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Tuesday, May 4th, 2010 analytics 1 Comment

Inbound Marketing Costs Less than Outbound Marketing; Growing in Importance too

Source: http://www.marketingcharts.com/direct/inbound-marketing-costs-less-12762

Marketers who spend more than 50% of their lead generation budget on inbound marketing channels report a significantly lower cost per sales lead than those who spend 50% or more their budgets on outbound marketing channels, according to the “State of Inbound Marketing Report” [pdf] from internet marketing firm Hubspot.

Average Cost Per Lead $200 Less
The average cost per lead by inbound marketing-dominated firms in 2010 is $134. This is $198, or 60%, less than the $332 average cost per lead at outbound marketing-dominated firms. This percentage differential has remained consistent from a 61% higher average lead generation expense reported by outbound-marketing-dominated firms in 2009.

3 of 4 Major Inbound Channels Cost Less
When asked to rank each lead generation category as “below average cost,” “near average cost,” or “above average cost,” businesses consistently ranked inbound marketing channels as having lower cost than outbound channels. Only PPC (pay-per-click search) had overall cost rankings comparable to those given outbound channels.

Social media and blogs had the highest “below average cost” rankings for both 2009 and 2010 (55% as a combined category in 2009 and 63% separately in 2010).

Trade shows, with their requirements for travel and expenses, as well as space rental and booth setup/removal for companies who exhibit, had the worst cost rankings in 2009 and 2010. In 2009, 55% of companies said trade show costs were above average and only 18% said they were below average. These figures improved moderately in 2010 (48% and 22%, respectively), but still left trade shows as clearly the least cost-effective marketing channel.

Inbound Marketing Grows in Importance
Inbound marketing is continuing to grow in importance at the expense of outbound marketing, according to other findings from the State of Inbound Marketing Report.

As a percentage of the overall lead generation budget, inbound marketing expanded slightly from 2009 to 2010 (38% to 39%), while outbound marketing contracted more significantly (29% to 24%). The net effect is that the gap widened from inbound marketing, which had a 9% greater share of the overall marketing budget than outbound marketing in 2009, to a 15% greater share in 2010. Roughly one-third of the lead generation budget is considered “not classified.”

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Sunday, May 2nd, 2010 digital 2 Comments

TV Ad Revenues Drop 12% Online ad revenues grew 8% from 2008 to 2009

With the greater efficiencies of digital, the overall “pie” will shrink because fewer dollars are needed to achieve the same effect. In other terms — for every DOLLAR pulled out of traditional and general advertising, 20 – 50 CENTS is put back into “digital” channels and tactics. Thus the overall pie will continue to shrink while some parts grow and other parts shrink dramatically.

Source: http://www.marketingcharts.com/print/magazine-ad-revenues-pages-fall-in-q1-2010-12574

Ad pages also declined in Q1 2010 compared to Q1 2009, falling 9.4%, according to the Publishers Information Bureau (PIB).

Source: http://www.marketingcharts.com/television/tv-ad-revenues-drop-12-12613/yankeegroup-media-averages-apr-2010jpg/

Total US TV and online advertising revenues dropped 12% in 2009, although online revenues independently grew, according to research from The Yankee Group.

TV Revenue Decline Worse than Expected
In 2009, the total US TV and online advertising market totaled $67 billion, compared to $77 billion in 2008. TV advertising, by far the largest portion of this combined market, was hit especially hard by reductions in spending during 2009.

The TV ad market declined 21.2%, from $52 billion to $41 billion, between 2008 and 2009. This was significantly more than the 4% (or roughly $2.1 billion) decline The Yankee Group originally forecast in June 2009. As highlighted below, a shift in consumer attention primarily drove the steep decline in the TV ad market.

TV’s Loss is Internet’s Gain
Internet advertising grew during 2009, as a result of consumers spending more time online and less time watching TV. Online ad revenues grew 8.3% between 2008, when they totaled $24 billion, and 2009, when they totaled $26 billion.

Media Consumption Dwindles
The total amount of time consumers spent on media per day actually declined 14.3% between 2008 and 2009. Consumers spent about 14 hours per day on media in 2008, but only 12 hours per day in 2009. Most of the decline in media consumption was represented by declining TV viewership.

Americans spent an average of three hours and 17 minutes per day consuming TV and video in 2009, compared to an average of four hours and 13 minutes a day consuming online content. In addition, average daily mobile phone use reached one hour and 18 minutes. Thus Yankee Group advises marketers and advertisers to increase their focus on online and mobile promotions.

Annual US Ad Spending Falls 12.3%
Total US advertising expenditures (including print, radio, outdoor and free standing inserts) fell 12.3% in 2009, to $125.3 billion, as compared to 2008, according to Kantar Media.

Some of Kantar’s findings echo findings from the Yankee Group. Internet display advertising expenditures increased 7.3% for the year, aided by sharply higher spending from the telecom, factory auto and travel categories. Meanwhile, spot TV advertising fell 23.7%, Spanish language TV advertising dropped 8.9%, network TV fell advertising 7.6%, and cable TV advertising only fell 1.4%.

About the Data: Statistics are taken from the updated Yankee Group “2009 Anywhere Advertising Forecast.”

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Thursday, April 15th, 2010 news, statistics 1 Comment

Occasions and Holidays Drive Movie Box Office Sales, Not Advertising

Taking the top box office results for each of 52 weekends from the past 10 complete years (1998 – 2008; Source: IMDB.com) we see consistently that occasions like Valentines, Memorial Day, July 4th, and Thanksgiving show increased movie going activity. People have more time during these holidays to go to the movies and Valentines is a date+movie occasion. Also, during the summer, many people go to the movie theatre to escape the heat so there is an overall hump every year during the summer months — from Memorial Day to Labor Day.

movie-box-office-2


People go out during Valentines, Memorial Day, July 4th, and Thanksgiving. And they still spend what they planned to spend — 2 tickets for movie — they didn’t buy 2 more tickets and see a second movie on the same date or holiday weekend.  If they had several good movies to choose from (often, they don’t), they would choose to spend the finite dollars on the one movie they really wanted to see. The overall movie spending “pie” did not increase much, if any, year over year.

1998 $4,055,194,733 n/a

1999 $4,253,601,768 5%

2000 $4,496,554,005 6%

2001 $5,003,433,737 11%

2002 $5,489,974,199 10%

2003 $5,581,797,720 2%

2004 $ 5,697,299,530 2%

2005 $ 5,524,566,579 -3%

2006 $ 5,660,826,625 +2%

2007 $ 5,968,027,963 +5%

2008 $ 5,887,193,490 -1%

The chart below shows a red line which is the average of all 10 years. The 10 thin blue lines are the annual lines from1998 – 2008, inclusive and these are plotted as actual dollars. They come out right on top of each other.

movie-box-office-2-overlay

Movie advertising, which runs into the hundreds of millions of dollars a year, has failed to noticeably increase the overall spending year-round or even during specific times. The chart below shows the differentials (difference between an annual line and the 10-yr average line). These all hover closely in the +$50M and -$50M band. The amplitude of the 10-yr average (red line) is larger than $50M in the summer hump — implying that the average change in movie ticket sales due to normal seasonality is larger than the change in amplitude caused by ALL movie advertising combined.

movie-box-2-differentials

And the summer “hump” is due to actual demand (people going out to movie theatres, some to escape the heat) not due to advertising. The only effect of advertising is to share-shift from one movie to another — the total spending remains consistent and even seasonal variations are consistent — a “zero-sum game.”


All-Time USA Box office

Source: IMDB.com

Rank Title USA Box Office
1. Titanic (1997) $600,779,824
2. The Dark Knight (2008) $533,316,061
3. Star Wars (1977) $460,935,665
4. Shrek 2 (2004) $436,471,036
5. E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial (1982) $434,949,459
6. Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace(1999) $431,065,444
7. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest (2006) $423,032,628
8. Spider-Man (2002) $403,706,375
9. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith (2005) $380,262,555
10. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King(2003) $377,019,252
11. Spider-Man 2 (2004) $373,377,893
12. The Passion of the Christ (2004) $370,270,943
13. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (2009) $367,614,540
14. Jurassic Park (1993) $356,784,000
15. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (2002) $340,478,898
16. Finding Nemo (2003) $339,714,367
17. Spider-Man 3 (2007) $336,530,303
18. Forrest Gump (1994) $329,691,196
19. The Lion King (1994) $328,423,001
20. Shrek the Third (2007) $320,706,665
21. Transformers (2007) $318,759,914
22. Iron Man (2008) $318,298,180
23. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2001) $317,557,891
24. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull(2008) $317,011,114
25. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring(2001) $313,837,577

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Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009 digital No Comments

Dr. Augustine Fou is Digital Consigliere to marketing executives, advising them on digital strategy and Unified Marketing(tm). Dr Fou has over 17 years of in-the-trenches, hands-on experience, which enables him to provide objective, in-depth assessments of their current marketing programs and recommendations for improving business impact and ROI using digital insights.

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