consensus

drag2share: MORGAN STANLEY: iPhone Sales Could Be Up 28% This Quarter (AAPL)

source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/businessinsider/~3/Cgtea6RQDPs/morgan-stanley-iphone-sales-could-be-up-28-this-quarter-2013-9

Apple’s iPhone units could grow by 28% on a year-over-year basis this quarter, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty.

Huberty’s “Alphawise Smartphone Tracker” suggests Apple sells 34.5 million phones in the September quarter. The Street consensus for iPhone sales is in the low thirty millions.

A 28% increase over a year ago would be good considering Apple will only be selling new iPhones for about a week in the quarter. It’s also good considering Apple’s growth was at single digit levels earlier in the year.

Apple’s will never post insane 80%+ growth for the iPhone again. The market is mature, and Apple already sells a lot of phones making mega-growth nearly impossible.

But 28% is a solid, growing number, if accurate.

Morgan Stanley’s Alphawise tracker uses web search analysis and Google Trends to make a forecast. It sounds a little goofy, but last quarter Alphawise predicted 31.3 million units. Apple sold 31.2 million.

While this is good news for Apple, there’s more to the story.

Alphawise predicts a relatively massive quarter for Samsung. It’s expected to sell 47 million Galaxy phones, which would blow Apple out of the water.

Here’s a chart from Huberty that compares Alphawise estimates to actual results”

iPhone Morgan Stanley


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Wednesday, September 18th, 2013 news No Comments

B2B Marketers Rank the Best Platforms for Reaching Customers and Prospects

source: http://www.marketingcharts.com/wp/television/b2b-marketers-rank-the-best-platforms-for-reaching-customers-and-prospects-35674/?utm_campaign=rssfeed&utm_source=mc&utm_medium=textlink

ABM-B2B-Marketers-Most-Successful-Platforms-Aug2013A recent survey [pdf] from ABM asked B2B media users which media types they rely on for decision-making. The study also contains some interesting results from the marketer side: which platforms do they think are most successful in creating awareness among existing customers and generating targeted leads of prospective new buyers? It turns out there’s quite a bit of consensus: face-to-face event attendance is rated the most successful platform, by a fairly wide margin.

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Friday, August 9th, 2013 news No Comments

Most People Think Google Glass Is Going To Flop

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/google-glass-sales-predictions-2013-5

megyn kelly google glassTech pundits are still weighing in on Google‘s computerized glasses, Google Glass.

Assessments are all over the map.

But getting a free version of a new gadget, or being rich enough that you can plunk down $1,500 for one, is very different from actually choosing to buy one as a normal person.

And that, for any new gadget, is where the rubber meets the road.

So what’s the current consensus for future Google Glass sales?

According to a poll we ran over the weekend, the consensus is that there really isn’t a consensus. The assessments, again, are all over the map.

If there is a bias, though, it’s to the negative. More people think Google Glass is going to flop that think it’s going to be a runaway hit.

Specifically, more than a quarter of people expect Google to sell less than a million units of Glass (or equivalent) in three years.

More than half expect Google to sell less than 8 million units a year.

Given the early excitement around the technology, both of those outcomes would be considered a flop.

Meanwhile, 14% of people think Google will sell more than 80 million units a year in three years.

That sales level would be a massive home run.

Here are the current results of the poll.  You can cast your own vote here.

Google Glass sales poll

 

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Tuesday, May 7th, 2013 news No Comments

Another Super Bearish Facebook Analyst Has Changed His Mind (FB)

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/another-super-bearish-facebook-analyst-has-changed-his-mind-2012-11

mark zuckerberg

Facebook has managed to get two bearish analysts to change their mind.

Carlos Kirjner at Bernstein Research and Rich Greenfield at BTIG have both upgraded the stock this morning. We’ve written up Greenfield’s note here, if you want to read it. (In short, he thinks Facebook’s plan to stuff ads in the mobile news feed is going help it beat Q4 estimates.)

As for Kirjner, he’s rating the stock “outperform,” and has a $33 price target.

Here’s why in a nutshell:

We think consensus is underestimating Facebook’s revenue growth potential over the next 12-24 months. We think Facebook is on path to beat consensus revenues over the next 12-24 months, delivering $6,976 million in 2013, 9% higher than consensus’ $6,388 million, and $8,650 million in 2014, or 7% higher than consensus’ $8,078 million. Further monetization of (mobile) Newsfeed inventory will be the main driver of growth, as we believe that for the next 18-24 months Facebook probably can increase the number of ad impressions per user per day with limited chance of seeing material deterioration in user experience. We also believe that at this point and for the near-to-medium term, its revenue growth trajectory will be the main driver of Facebook’s stock performance. In addition to mobile, further monetization of the PC Newsfeed and the positive impact of the Facebook Exchange on right-hand-side column CPMs will help drive growth.

Beyond this, Kirjner believes Facebook’s social advertising initiatives can work:

Social, new businesses opportunities and the platform remain options fo! r furthe r upside for the next two years and beyond. The successful monetization of Newsfeed inventory and introduction of the Facebook Exchange have given Facebook an 18-24 month runway to develop new revenue streams from new formats (e.g., gifts), to work with advertisers and third parties such as Datalogix and Nielsen to improve (online brand) advertising ROI and its measurement, which would enhance its long-term pricing, and to continue pushing adoption of social across the Web with its platform play, based on Facebook Connect and the Open Graph Protocol. In other words, we still think of Facebook as a distinctive display advertising business, but mobile and the exchange make it better and larger, and extend the time horizon Facebook has to realize the potential of new business opportunities and of social advertising.

The bottom line here is that Facebook has shown it’s willing to build a big business, something analysts didn’t think would happen. And now they’re upgrading the stock. They are still cautious about how it all plays out, but overall there is reason to be positive about the stock for the first time since it became publicly traded.

Don’t Miss: Facebook’s IPO Was One Of The Biggest Tech Flops Of The Year

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Monday, November 26th, 2012 news No Comments

What Square’s Starbucks Deal Might Look Like

Source: https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/welcome

Square announced yesterday that it will handle all of Starbucks’s U.S. credit- and debit-card sales.

According to Yahoo Finance, analyst consensus for the calendar quarters ending September and December are $3.38 and $3.81 billion, respectively. This doesn’t quite align with Starbucks’ fiscal schedule, but we will assume revenue distribution is similar.

Historically, Starbucks generates about 75 percent of its revenue from the Americas. For the sake of simplicity, we’ll also assume Square is handling Starbucks’s Q3 sales even though the system probably won’t be rolled out for a while.

According to SAI’s Owen Thomas, 25 percent of its sales go through its prepaid Starbucks cards. His assumption of 50 percent credit card sales also seems fair to us.  

Additionally, Square’s annualized run rate for transaction volume has organically been growing by $1 billion every other month. Square last announced they were handling transactions at a $6 billion-a-year rate in June. If this growth rate continues, Square will handle the annual equivalent of $7 billion this month, $8 billion in October, and $9 billion in December.

Combining the expected Starbucks sales and its organic growth, Square would be handling $28.6 million of payments a day at the end of the year at an annual run rate of $10.4 billion. With a 2.75% take of transactions, it would be generating revenues of $787,000 a day—for an annual revenue run rate of $287 million.  

Square Starbucks     

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Wednesday, August 8th, 2012 news No Comments

Wall Street Analysts Are Becoming Increasingly Worthless

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/subramanian-wall-street-analysts-herding-2012-7

Savita Subramanian and the U.S. equity strategy team have noted that Wall Street analysts have been unusually bearish lately, a phenomenon that often precedes a massive rally in the market.

In other words, Subramanian is suggesting that the best move may be to do the exact opposite of what Wall Street is saying.

In a new note to clients, she offers even more evidence suggesting that analysts might not be worth what they’re getting paid for.

Today, estimates may be lower quality than normal, given evidence of herding around consensus,” she wrote.

Chart 14 shows that the “dispersion of EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies is near all-time lows, likely reflecting an unwillingness of analysts to diverge from consensus amid macro uncertainty.”

subramanian analysts

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Monday, July 16th, 2012 news No Comments

Google’s CPC Growth Slumps

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/googles-cpc-slump-2012-4

Business Insider Intelligence is a new research and analysis service for real-time insight and intelligence about the Internet industry. The product is currently in beta. For more information, and to sign up for a free 30-day trial, click here.

Google released solid financial results last week, meeting expectations on revenue and beating street consensus on the bottom line. However, tucked away in the earnings call was a troubling statistic: cost-per-click growth slumped 12 percent year-over-year. This follows an 8 percent drop in CPC in the prior quarter.

The drop is probably the result of a surge in mobile search queries with the growth of smartphones and tablets. While Google reportedly has an ~90 percent share of the mobile search market, mobile CPC is much lower. Conventional wisdom holds that they will eventually catch up, but we argue in a new note that this is not necessarily the case.

This is because Google’s revenue is determined by advertisers’ ROI, not the number of clicks on search ads. In other words, unless consumers start purchasing more goods because of their mobile devices, CPCs won’t rise.

Click here to read our note on Google’s quarterly results →

Google CPC Growth

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Monday, April 16th, 2012 news No Comments

"We Are Not Prepared"

Source: http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2010-02/washington-war-games-simulate-crippling-cyber-attack-us

Washington insiders recently sweated out a real-time war game where a cyberattack crippled cell phone service, Internet and even electrical grids across the U.S. The unscripted, dynamic simulation allowed former White House officials and the Bipartisan Policy Center to study the problems that might arise during a real cyberattack emergency, according to Aviation Week’s Ares Defense Blog.

The Policy Center’s vice-president reports “”The general consensus of the panel today was that we are not prepared to deal with these kinds of attacks.”

The nightmarish scenario that unfolded represented a worst-case example. As former secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff noted, many cyberattacks can be stopped if individual cell phone or Internet users simply follow the best practices and use the right tools. Similarly, another participant pointed out that private Internet companies would not sit idly by as a virus ran amok.

A collapse of power across the U.S. also only took place when the simulation brought in factors such as high demand during the summer, a hurricane that had damaged power supply lines, and coordinated bombings that accompanied the cyberattack and subsequent failure of the Internet.

Still, the war game highlighted crucial issues about the government’s own reliance upon communications that might go down during a real-life scenario. One of the biggest problems was how the President ought to respond to a situation that caused damage like warfare but lacked an immediately identifiable foreign adversary. Smaller-scale cyberattacks have already complicated real-world diplomacy, such as the alleged Chinese cyberattacks on Google and other U.S. companies.

Ares Defense Blog questioned a curious missing element from the simulation, in that there was no mention of what happened to phone or Internet service in the rest of the world. Surely a nation that decided to launch cyberattacks against the U.S. would take safeguards to protect its own crucial communication services, which would possibly help U.S. officials narrow down the list of suspects.

Another question seemed more mundane but equally important — how would the government activate the National Guard with cell phone service down?

The Pentagon’s DARPA science lab recently pushed for a “Cyber Genome Program” that could trace digital fingerprints to cyberattack culprits. But identifying whether a cyber attack came from individual civilians, shadowy hacker associations or government cyber-warriors has proven tricky in the meantime.

[via Ares Defense Blog]

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Friday, February 19th, 2010 digital No Comments

Dr. Augustine Fou is Digital Consigliere to marketing executives, advising them on digital strategy and Unified Marketing(tm). Dr Fou has over 17 years of in-the-trenches, hands-on experience, which enables him to provide objective, in-depth assessments of their current marketing programs and recommendations for improving business impact and ROI using digital insights.

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