estimates

drag2share: MORGAN STANLEY: iPhone Sales Could Be Up 28% This Quarter (AAPL)

source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/businessinsider/~3/Cgtea6RQDPs/morgan-stanley-iphone-sales-could-be-up-28-this-quarter-2013-9

Apple’s iPhone units could grow by 28% on a year-over-year basis this quarter, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty.

Huberty’s “Alphawise Smartphone Tracker” suggests Apple sells 34.5 million phones in the September quarter. The Street consensus for iPhone sales is in the low thirty millions.

A 28% increase over a year ago would be good considering Apple will only be selling new iPhones for about a week in the quarter. It’s also good considering Apple’s growth was at single digit levels earlier in the year.

Apple’s will never post insane 80%+ growth for the iPhone again. The market is mature, and Apple already sells a lot of phones making mega-growth nearly impossible.

But 28% is a solid, growing number, if accurate.

Morgan Stanley’s Alphawise tracker uses web search analysis and Google Trends to make a forecast. It sounds a little goofy, but last quarter Alphawise predicted 31.3 million units. Apple sold 31.2 million.

While this is good news for Apple, there’s more to the story.

Alphawise predicts a relatively massive quarter for Samsung. It’s expected to sell 47 million Galaxy phones, which would blow Apple out of the water.

Here’s a chart from Huberty that compares Alphawise estimates to actual results”

iPhone Morgan Stanley


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Wednesday, September 18th, 2013 news No Comments

Bot Traffic in Q2: Suspicious Activity Continues to Rise

source: http://www.marketingcharts.com/wp/topics/spam-spyware-intrusive/bot-traffic-in-q2-suspicious-activity-continues-to-rise-36610/?utm_campaign=rssfeed&utm_source=mc&utm_medium=textlink

SolveMedia-Online-Bot-Traffic-Q32012-Q22013-Sept2013Bot traffic continues to be a global problem, says Solve Media in its latest Bot Traffic Market Advisory update. In Q2, activity deemed “suspicious” grew to 49% of all traffic for the web advertising ecosystem, up from 43% in Q1, 40% in Q4 2012 and 26% in Q3. Confirmed bot traffic was in the range of 24-29%, fairly consistent with prior quarters, but still up significantly from 10% in Q3 2012. Suspicious mobile traffic, while not quite on the same level as the web, is also on the rise.

During Q2, suspicious activity grew from 29% to 35% for mobile advertising, with confirmed bot traffic in the 11-14% range.

The US’ level of suspicious web activity was slightly below the global average, at 42%, with suspicious mobile activity also below-average at 22%.

The top 3 countries for suspicious web activity were: China (92%); Venezuela (80%); and the Ukraine (77%). For mobile traffic, the countries with the highest share of suspicious activity were: Singapore (86%); Macau (82%); and Qatar (81%).

Solve Media also warns of a “new threat targeting the video ad marketplace.” Recently, Vindico suggested that 30-40% of video ad impressions could be fraudulent.

Overall, Solve Media estimates that current levels of bot traffic put the digital advertising industry on pace to waste up to $9.5 billion this year advertising to bots.

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Thursday, September 12th, 2013 news No Comments

Making Sense of Blurring Channels Marks the Latest Key Digital Trend

source: http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Making-Sense-of-Blurring-Channels-Marks-Latest-Key-Digital-Trend/1010202

Measurement and attribution are increasingly important

Omnichannel marketing first took hold among retailers anxious to tap into consumers’ time-, place-, platform- and device-shifting habits, and digital continues to blur where, when and how people interact with marketers, according to a new eMarketer report, “Key Digital Trends for Q3 2013: How Omnichannel Is Blurring Boundaries Everywhere.”

Expansion, and now contraction, in what constitutes a consumer is due in part to the erosion in meaning of established terms like “mobile.” For example, when a majority of mobile device usage takes place at home, mobile no longer differentiates a sedentary consumer from one who is on the go. The mobile device is merely another representation of the consumer, increasingly indistinct from any other computing device.

Just as the lines between online and offline consumers have blurred, divisions between branding and direct-response advertising are also eroding. eMarketer estimates that out of a total of $41.94 billion in US digital ad spending in 2013, nearly 60% will go toward direct response. However, those allocations are set to shift as digital absorbs an ever-greater share of consumers’ media time. In 2017, eMarketer projects branding and direct response will enjoy nearly equal portions of the digital advertising pie.

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Wednesday, September 11th, 2013 news No Comments

Strong Quarter for TV Propels US Ad Spend to a 3.5% Increase in Q2

source: http://www.marketingcharts.com/wp/television/strong-quarter-for-tv-propels-us-ad-spend-to-a-3-5-increase-in-q2-36545/?utm_campaign=rssfeed&utm_source=mc&utm_medium=textlink

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The total spending figures may actually underestimate growth, as Kantar’s online spending estimates only include display advertising, which the report says increased by 4.1% for the quarter. (Given the recent growth trajectory of online ad spending, it’s more likely that online ad spending growth was somewhere in the double digits.)

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Monday, September 9th, 2013 news No Comments

Retail Industry Remains the Largest Spender in US Digital Advertising

source: http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Retail-Industry-Remains-Largest-Spender-US-Digital-Advertising/1010187

Direct-response, search spending garners the greatest share of retailers’ digital advertising

The US retail industry’s advertising spending on paid digital media will hit $9.42 billion in 2013 and rise to $13.50 billion by 2017, for a 10.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), according to a new eMarketer report, “The US Retail Industry 2013: Digital Ad Spending Forecast and Key Trends.” While gains in digital outlays have slowed over the past several years, retail remains the top spender among US industries and will retain this lead for the duration of the forecast period.

However, eMarketer also expects the retail industry’s share of the total US digital advertising pie to decline slightly, from 22.3% in 2013 to 22.0% in 2017.

Whether on desktop or mobile, direct-response campaigns will continue to take the lion’s share of digital ad spending by the retail industry. Marketers in the retail industry—led by online and multichannel retailers, but also including catalog retailers and restaurants—will invest 64.6% of their paid digital dollars in direct-response efforts this year, according to eMarketer estimates. Brand-focused campaigns will make up the remaining 35.4%.

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Thursday, September 5th, 2013 news No Comments

UK Consumers Turn to Social Media for Their Online Search Needs – eMarketer

source: http://www.emarketer.com/Article/UK-Consumers-Turn-Social-Media-Their-Online-Search-Needs/1010174

Younger consumers more prone to look for content on social

Search continues to be a prime digital entry point for many UK consumers. As such, search continues to account for the largest proportion of digital ad spend in the country, according to eMarketer estimates. But there are signs of some shifting habits in terms of how UK web users find online content.

Research from video search techonology company blinkx finds that UK consumers, and particularly younger ones, are beginning to find a lot of their online content via social media. The May 2013 study showed that 43% of polled UK internet users between ages 18 and 24 chose social media to find content online over search.

As an indicator of the move away from search as the default for information discovery, eMarketer forecasts that search’s share of total digital ad spend will decline slightly from 2014 onward. Display is set to be the beneficiary, with video growing its share of that total throughout the forecast period.

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Thursday, August 29th, 2013 news No Comments

Facebook Sees Big Gains in Global Mobile Ad Market Share

source: http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Facebook-Sees-Big-Gains-Global-Mobile-Ad-Market-Share/1010171

Facebook’s continued emphasis on mobile monetization, along with its users’ ongoing shift toward mobile devices, is resulting in dramatic gains in mobile ad market share, according to eMarketer’s latest estimates of worldwide ad spending and revenues at significant players in the mobile and digital ad markets.

The company is expected to see its share of global mobile internet ad revenues reach 15.8% this year, up from just 5.35% in 2012, which was the first year that Facebook had any mobile ad offerings. eMarketer previously estimated Facebook’s share of mobile ad revenues worldwide would reach 12.9% this year.

eMarketer estimates that Google will grab 53.17% of the worldwide mobile ad market this year, up slightly over 2012—primarily a result of continued growth in mobile search usage and further mobile monetization of YouTube. The overall mobile ad market worldwide is expected to grow 89% to $16.65 billion in 2013, eMarketer estimates.

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Wednesday, August 28th, 2013 news No Comments

Nearly One-fifth of US Display Spending Will Be Automated This Year – eMarketer

source: http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Nearly-One-fifth-of-US-Display-Spending-Will-Automated-This-Year/1010156

Programmatic buying will continue to gain a greater portion of display spending in the US this year, according to eMarketer’s latest estimates on US real-time bidding (RTB) and digital display advertising.

The growth of RTB comes as more advertisers familiarize themselves with a complex automated buying ecosystem, and seek to reach audiences through a more targeted, and—in some cases—cost-effective process.

eMarketer has revised its projections for RTB digital display advertising in the US upward, due to upward revisions in the overall digital display ad market.

The company’s latest forecast of US ad spending predicts marketers will spend $3.34 billion this year on real-time-bidded ads, up 73.9% from last year. Previously, in June, eMarketer forecast RTB spending would reach $3.32 billion, for growth of 72.7%. eMarketer has similarly revised upward growth rates and total dollars spent on RTB for future years. eMarketer now expects US advertisers to spend $8.69 billion on RTB ads by 2017, up from $8.51 billion previously forecast.

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Friday, August 23rd, 2013 news No Comments

Pay-TV, Broadband Subs Moving in Opposite Directions

source: http://www.marketingcharts.com/wp/television/pay-tv-broadband-subs-moving-in-opposite-directions-36062/?utm_campaign=rssfeed&utm_source=mc&utm_medium=textlink

LRG-Pay-TV-Broadband-Subscription-Trends-in-Q2-Aug2013The pay-TV market is shrinking, while broadband subscriptions are picking up steam, according to a pair of reports from the Leichtman Research Group (LRG). LRG estimates that the top multichannel video providers, who represent around 94% of the market, shed a total of 344,318 subscribers during the second quarter, while the top broadband providers (many also doubling as pay-TV providers) added 294,304 subscriptions during the same period.

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Friday, August 23rd, 2013 news No Comments

US Mobile Ad Spending, Search is Largest Share

source: http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Mobile-Gains-Greater-Share-of-Search-Display-Spending/1010148

Digital ad spending continues to shift from desktop to mobile devices, according to eMarketer’s latest estimates on US ad spending.

Search has already undergone a dramatic shift in spending toward mobile, which will continue into the future. In 2010, just 2.1% of all digital search ad dollars were spent on mobile devices. This year, that share will reach 22.1%, and by 2017, eMarketer expects, US advertisers will spend 59.6% of all digital search dollars on mobile.

Search is still king of the US digital ad spending market, but its hold on the crown is getting shakier each year. eMarketer’s latest forecast of US ad spending, including digital ad formats, pegs search ad spending at $19.6 billion this year. That includes search ads on desktop and laptop computers as well as mobile phones, tablets and other connected devices.

Digital display spending is still lower, at an expected $17.6 billion this year, including outlays on banners, video, rich media, sponsorships and other display formats, like Facebook’s Sponsored Stories or Twitter’s Promoted Tweets. Next year, combined spending on display formats will reach $20.6 billion, close to search’s expected $21.6 billion in spending, and by 2015 display will pull ahead.

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Thursday, August 22nd, 2013 news No Comments

Dr. Augustine Fou is Digital Consigliere to marketing executives, advising them on digital strategy and Unified Marketing(tm). Dr Fou has over 17 years of in-the-trenches, hands-on experience, which enables him to provide objective, in-depth assessments of their current marketing programs and recommendations for improving business impact and ROI using digital insights.

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