gdp growth

This Horrific Media Spend Data Says There WILL Be A Global Recession In 2013 (OMC, IPG, WPPGY, HAVFP, AGSL, MDCA, PUB)


gdp advertising

The four largest ad agency companies have all reported their Q3 numbers, and all of them agreed on one thing: The economics of media spending and the macro-economic picture generally don’t look good

The pattern is ominous: Revenue growth at Interpublic Group just went negative for the first time since the last recession. All the other companies are trending down. GDP growth is anemic — and that number isn’t the government’s final estimate. The final number may be worse.

Skip straight to the data >

This chart plots “organic” (like for like, year-on-year) revenue growth at the four largest ad agency holding companies and compares it to sequential growth in U.S. GDP.

Those companies are WPP Group (which owns Ogilvy, Y&R and JWT, among others), Omnicom (BBDO, DDB and TBWA), Interpublic Group (DraftFCB, McCann and Deutsch) and Publicis Groupe (Saatchi & Saatchi, Leo Burnett and Digitas).

We believe it is interesting because advertising revenues are a good proxy for economic growth globally. They represent a broad range of companies with revenues that come from both the U.S. and foreign countries, and companies signal their optimism via their willingness to spend on ads.

The obvious caveat: The sequential vs. y-o-y numbers are apples vs. oranges.

So is this anecdotal trend real, or a mi! rage? Le t’s examine the evidence.

This is Interpublic’s ‘Powerpoint From Hell.’ We’re basically right back at 2008, according to IPG’s numbers.

It doesn’t matter where you look at IPG, everything is trending negative.

Publicis Groupe’s Q3 earnings contained these grim surprises: It expected 6.6% growth in September but got -1.6% instead. Its clients appear to be frozen in the headlights. (Red emphases added.)

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Monday, October 29th, 2012 news No Comments

The World’s Biggest Consumer Goods Company Shows That Growth In Developed Markets Is Tanking (PG)


Proctor and Gamble unexpectedly cut guidance this morning, sending shares down in pre-market trade.

In a statement, Procter said “the revisions to the Company’s fourth quarter outlook are primarily driven by slower than anticipated top-line growth from slower than expected market growth rates and market share softness in developed regions and negative impacts from foreign exchange rate changes.”

Translation: high unemployment coupled with slow-to-no GDP growth in developed markets are destroying the top line.

At a Deutsche Bank panel today, Procter plans to show this slide that sums it up pretty nicely.

Procter & Gamble Guidance

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Wednesday, June 20th, 2012 news No Comments

Dr. Augustine Fou is Digital Consigliere to marketing executives, advising them on digital strategy and Unified Marketing(tm). Dr Fou has over 17 years of in-the-trenches, hands-on experience, which enables him to provide objective, in-depth assessments of their current marketing programs and recommendations for improving business impact and ROI using digital insights.

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