harry potter

Top Posts for Week Ending July 26th

  • Notes from the front lines: Facebook advertising metrics and benchmarks
  • crispin porter bogusky’s beta site
  • The Perfect Babe – Megan Fox (pics)
  • The hardest thing to do in web 2.0 …
  • marketing misconceptions, advertising misconceptions, social media misconceptions
  • What is Web 3.0? Characteristics of Web 3.0
  • Bing is bigger than CNN, Digg, Twitter? Not so fast!
  • Smaller social networks are losing even the few users they have…
  • Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince and other Harry Potter Movies
  • Branding is still a useful activity? Reach and frequency is still a useful metric?
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    Monday, July 27th, 2009 digital No Comments

    Occasions and Holidays Drive Movie Box Office Sales, Not Advertising

    Taking the top box office results for each of 52 weekends from the past 10 complete years (1998 – 2008; Source: IMDB.com) we see consistently that occasions like Valentines, Memorial Day, July 4th, and Thanksgiving show increased movie going activity. People have more time during these holidays to go to the movies and Valentines is a date+movie occasion. Also, during the summer, many people go to the movie theatre to escape the heat so there is an overall hump every year during the summer months — from Memorial Day to Labor Day.

    movie-box-office-2


    People go out during Valentines, Memorial Day, July 4th, and Thanksgiving. And they still spend what they planned to spend — 2 tickets for movie — they didn’t buy 2 more tickets and see a second movie on the same date or holiday weekend. ┬áIf they had several good movies to choose from (often, they don’t), they would choose to spend the finite dollars on the one movie they really wanted to see. The overall movie spending “pie” did not increase much, if any, year over year.

    1998 $4,055,194,733 n/a

    1999 $4,253,601,768 5%

    2000 $4,496,554,005 6%

    2001 $5,003,433,737 11%

    2002 $5,489,974,199 10%

    2003 $5,581,797,720 2%

    2004 $ 5,697,299,530 2%

    2005 $ 5,524,566,579 -3%

    2006 $ 5,660,826,625 +2%

    2007 $ 5,968,027,963 +5%

    2008 $ 5,887,193,490 -1%

    The chart below shows a red line which is the average of all 10 years. The 10 thin blue lines are the annual lines from1998 – 2008, inclusive and these are plotted as actual dollars. They come out right on top of each other.

    movie-box-office-2-overlay

    Movie advertising, which runs into the hundreds of millions of dollars a year, has failed to noticeably increase the overall spending year-round or even during specific times. The chart below shows the differentials (difference between an annual line and the 10-yr average line). These all hover closely in the +$50M and -$50M band. The amplitude of the 10-yr average (red line) is larger than $50M in the summer hump — implying that the average change in movie ticket sales due to normal seasonality is larger than the change in amplitude caused by ALL movie advertising combined.

    movie-box-2-differentials

    And the summer “hump” is due to actual demand (people going out to movie theatres, some to escape the heat) not due to advertising. The only effect of advertising is to share-shift from one movie to another — the total spending remains consistent and even seasonal variations are consistent — a “zero-sum game.”


    All-Time USA Box office

    Source: IMDB.com

    Rank Title USA Box Office
    1. Titanic (1997) $600,779,824
    2. The Dark Knight (2008) $533,316,061
    3. Star Wars (1977) $460,935,665
    4. Shrek 2 (2004) $436,471,036
    5. E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial (1982) $434,949,459
    6. Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace(1999) $431,065,444
    7. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest (2006) $423,032,628
    8. Spider-Man (2002) $403,706,375
    9. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith (2005) $380,262,555
    10. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King(2003) $377,019,252
    11. Spider-Man 2 (2004) $373,377,893
    12. The Passion of the Christ (2004) $370,270,943
    13. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (2009) $367,614,540
    14. Jurassic Park (1993) $356,784,000
    15. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (2002) $340,478,898
    16. Finding Nemo (2003) $339,714,367
    17. Spider-Man 3 (2007) $336,530,303
    18. Forrest Gump (1994) $329,691,196
    19. The Lion King (1994) $328,423,001
    20. Shrek the Third (2007) $320,706,665
    21. Transformers (2007) $318,759,914
    22. Iron Man (2008) $318,298,180
    23. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2001) $317,557,891
    24. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull(2008) $317,011,114
    25. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring(2001) $313,837,577

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    Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009 digital No Comments

    Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince and other Harry Potter Movies

    interest in Harry Potter movies (indicated by search volume) match exactly to the launch of the movies themselves. What is interesting is that the current movie (Half Blood Prince) and the upcoming 7th Harry Potter Movie (Deathly Hallows) had enormous search volume over 2 years ahead of each movie, 2005 and 2007, respectively. See second chart below.

    Harry-Potter-Movie-Search-Volume

    harry-potter-and-the-half-blood
    Daniel Radcliffe…Harry Potter
    Michael Gambon…Professor Albus Dumbledore
    Dave Legeno…Fenrir Greyback
    Elarica Gallagher…Waitress
    Jim Broadbent…Professor Horace Slughorn
    Geraldine Somerville…Lily Potter
    Bonnie Wright…Ginny Weasley
    Julie Walters…Molly Weasley
    Rupert Grint…Ron Weasley
    Emma Watson…Hermione Granger
    Helena Bonham Carter…Bellatrix Lestrange
    Helen McCrory…Narcissa Malfoy
    Timothy Spall…Wormtail
    Alan Rickman…Professor Severus Snape
    Oliver Phelps…George Weasley

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    Wednesday, July 15th, 2009 digital 1 Comment

    Fading Stars, Hit Driven Stars, Flatliners, Rising Stars

    search volume of various movie and television celebrities is driven by movie or television show; some are hit drive, others have sustaining power

    Increasing and sustaining search volume – Megan Fox

    megan-fox-search-volume

    Hit Driven – Emma Watson search volume goes with Harry Potter movie search volume, exactly

    emma-watson-harry-potter-search-volume

    Spider Man Movie, Kirsten Dunst and Toby Maguire stars – search volume match exactly

    kirsten-dunst-toby-maguire-

    Fading Stars – Jessica Alba has some search volume spikes around the time when movies come out, but there is an overall decline in baseline search volume over time.

    jessica-alba-search-volume


    Fading TV Show – in January of 2006 and 07 there was still significant search volume around the star of Fox’s 24. In 2008 and 09 there was not. Kim Bauer (Elisha Cuthbert)

    jack-bauer-keifer-sutherland-search-volume

    Flatliners – Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt search volume

    brad-pitt-angelina-jolie-search-volume


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    Monday, July 6th, 2009 digital No Comments

    Dr. Augustine Fou is Digital Consigliere to marketing executives, advising them on digital strategy and Unified Marketing(tm). Dr Fou has over 17 years of in-the-trenches, hands-on experience, which enables him to provide objective, in-depth assessments of their current marketing programs and recommendations for improving business impact and ROI using digital insights.

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