Mobile almost doubled its share of the U.S. digital ad market through the first six months of the year. According to IAB, U.S. mobile ad revenues were $1.2 billion in the first half of the year and 7 percent of total U.S. digital ad revenues, up from 4 percent a year prior.
Total 2011 U.S. mobile ad revenues were $1.6 billion, according to IAB. Half-year revenues of $596 million were about 38 percent of the year-end total. Holding all else equal, if the U.S. market grew at the same rate this year, 2012 mobile ad revenues would be $3.2 billion.
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Data is starting to trickle in and shape our understanding of the nascent mobile ad market. According to data from Flurry Analytics, 25- to 34-year-old females are the most valuable demographic for advertisers and publishers (as measured by the underlying click-through and conversion rates).
This is not surprising: Young people have adopted smartphones at a much higher rate than their parents. However, mobile CPMs will eventually even out as penetration picks up amongst older age groups. Furthermore, women should be more valuable because they historically have controlled household expenses and there is some evidence that they use smartphones more than men while shopping.
Finally, the eCPMs strike us as pretty high—even as smartphone usage has exploded, demand seems to have held up.
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This chart (below) from ISI Group tells you all you need to know about the fate of cable TV in the age of the iPad: Since Q1 2010, 2.3 million people have stopped subscribing to pay TV as delivered by cable TV companies such as Cablevision, Comcast, DirecTV, Time Warner Cable, Dish, Verizon, and AT&T.
Currently, only 41.5 million Americans watch TV on pay cable.
I’ve been arguing for a while now that Americans are on the cusp of a dramatic change in how they watch video. They’re moving to video over the internet. Traditional TV is dying, in much the same way that in the mid-2000s we all largely stopped using hardwired telephones to make calls in favor of wireless mobile cellphones.
Hardwired phones are still a big business, of course, and most households still have them. But they’re really a vestigial offshoot of whatever bundled communications package you’ve bought.
It looks like cable is about to go the same way. Although its subscriber numbers are dwindling, subscriber numbers for satellite TV and broadband phone/internet service remain relatively healthy, as the second chart (below) shows. That suggests to me that there is a growing number of households choosing a broadband package with the internet as their top priority, and a dwindling number choosing it based on TV.
Ironically, the fall has come at a time when cable is making more ad money than ever. It’s a supply-and-demand issue: It may be that cable TV’s audience is dwindling, but it’s still one of the few venues that reliably delivers millions of eyeballs all at once.
First, the cable TV chart, based on numbers from ISI Group:
Here’s the market share situation. Note that 2011 was a threshold year, when cable slipped from having more than 50 percent of the market to less:
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PepsiCo’s plan to increase profit margins for its Tropicana orange juice is simple: Just add water. Apparently some consumers are already doing that on their own, in order to get a less-thick or lower-calorie beverage. “They themselves add water before drinking OJ,” a PepsiCo exec tells Bloomberg. “So why not add the water ourselves and charge for it?” Tropicana lost market share to Coca-Cola Co.’s Minute Maid and Simply Orange brands after PepsiCo repackaged its juice three years ago.
Now, instead of continuing to compete in the 100% juice category, PepsiCo will focus on different products with higher profit margins. One such product—Trop50, which contains 42% orange juice and uses a low-calorie stevia-based sweetener—has already been successful. Says the exec, “We have lost perspective here on the primary reason we are in business, which is to make money.” Consumers will always know what they’re getting, thanks to strict FDA juice labeling guidelines.
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We love this chart from Dan Frommer at SplatF.
He calls it the “Eggs In One Basket” index, because it charts out the largest source of revenue as a percentage for all the major tech companies. (Profits would be a different story altogether.)
Google gets over 90% of its revenue from one source: Advertising. The next closest is Amazon with product sales. But, Amazon’s product sales are a mix of goods, so it’s not exactly the same as relying on just advertising.
For now, this isn’t a big problem for Google. The online ad market is still growing, and Google can capture a lot of the market. But, if things were to change, or advertising were to slow down, then look out.
What’s incredible about this chart is how diverse Microsoft is from a sales perspective. Its most dominant business group, Office, only accounts for 30% of sales. Read more on the chart from Frommer here →
Amazon just kicked off a new TV campaign for the Kindle Fire, which it doubtless hopes will further dent sales of Apple’s iPad. But Kindle has a long way to go before it starts threatening the iPad as a device for serving online ads to consumers.
Data from Rimm-Kaufmann Group, an online marketing agency, show that the iPad maintains its total dominance of the tablet market when it comes to ad traffic. Kindle is slowly making progress, but it only has 3.48 percent of the market to iPad’s 88.1 percent.
iPad had a 93.44 percent share of the market late last year, so share is being traded quickly in this category.
With iPad 3 on the way, even those small gains for Kindle may be in jeopardy.
When it comes to ad performance, the iPad also has a significant edge. If you index the data to the average ad displayed on a desktop computer, ads on iPad get 10 percent more revenue per click, the same level of overall clicks, and a greater average order value.
All the other tablets, including Kindle, perform much worse than ads displayed on PCs.
iPad dominates ad traffic on tablets, but its dominance is slipping.
The Kindle is gaining share of ad traffic the fastest against the iPad.
But the iPad is still the most effective tablet device by far, for advertisers.
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This morning, news broke that the Greeks had a reform deal. The Euro shot up on the news.
But if you were on twitter, you could have profited early.
Trader @pawelmorski just posted this annotated chart.
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Dr. Augustine Fou is Digital Consigliere to marketing executives, advising them on digital strategy and Unified Marketing(tm). Dr Fou has over 17 years of in-the-trenches, hands-on experience, which enables him to provide objective, in-depth assessments of their current marketing programs and recommendations for improving business impact and ROI using digital insights.
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