national polls

WAIT! Obama Has Re-Taken The Lead In An Average Of National Polls

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-re-takes-the-lead-in-the-real-clear-politics-2012-10

Barack Obama

RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, the two most credible and widely cited polling aggregators online, both have Obama back in the lead in their RCP Average and FiveThirtyEight Forecast, respectively. 

With FiveThirtyEight, Obama never lost the lead, he just severely diminished it. 

But now, RealClearPolitics has Obama back in the lead at 47.1% to Romney’s 47% in their aggregate polling.

It’s slim, but here’s how it breaks down.

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 Granted, it is a mere 0.1 percent lead, and the margin of error alone eclipses it many times over, but still, Obama seems to be out of the weeds after the lackluster first debate performance according to RCP’s measurements. 

One major point of contention at the moment is Gallup’s observation that Romney has a six point lead among likely voters, down from seven points yesterday. The reservations were raised because no other firm with a daily tracking poll found anything close to that number.

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight’s proprietor and mastermind, had an excellent post Thursday on the Gallup numbers and why, in light of the huge disparity between the Gallup’s tracking poll and rivals’ tracking polls, the number is most likely inaccurate. 

If Silver is correct — he has a habit of being correct — ! and Gall up is far off the mark compared to the firm’s competitors, then the RCP average will likely rise as the polling data self-corrects. 

Now check the second term Obama economic plan you haven’t heard of >

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Friday, October 19th, 2012 news No Comments

Dr. Augustine Fou is Digital Consigliere to marketing executives, advising them on digital strategy and Unified Marketing(tm). Dr Fou has over 17 years of in-the-trenches, hands-on experience, which enables him to provide objective, in-depth assessments of their current marketing programs and recommendations for improving business impact and ROI using digital insights.

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