drag2share: The Last, Best Hope For Those In The Newspaper Business Is Probably A Hallucination


The new newspaper numbers are out.

As this chart from Mark Penn of Carpe Diem shows, they’re even worse than the last ones.

On an inflation-adjusted basis, print advertising revenue in newspapers is now 14% below the 1950 level. When digital revenue is included, the number is only modestly higher. And it’s still headed in the wrong direction.

Newspaper ad spending

Why does newspaper ad spending continue to plummet?

Because fewer and fewer people are reading newspapers.

This chart from a recent UK survey on media habits shows what is happening. The survey charted favorite media by age. Some old people—those over the age of 75—still like newspapers, but very few younger people do. And once you get below the age of 35, no one favors newspapers—newspapers literally don’t register on the chart.

Media preference by age

The last, best hope for those in the newspaper business is that today’s young people, who aren’t reading print newspapers, will start reading them eventually — when they become older and more sophisticated.

This is almost certainly wishful thinking.

The shift to digital is generational: People who grew up reading newspap! ers are still reading them, because media habits die hard. People who grew up without newspapers, meanwhile, aren’t reading them, and probably never will.

In 10-20 years, today’s 16-34 year old consumers will make up the sweet spot of the consumer market. If this group were ever going to develop a love of print, we would likely have seen it by now. More likely, this generation of consumers will never care about newspapers.

As the generation of consumers who do care about print, meanwhile — increasingly old people (like me) who grew up on print — continues to age, the pressure on traditional print publications will continue to increase.

Some hope that the $17 billion of ad revenue the newspapers have left will eventually begin to increase again as today’s teenagers and millennials grow up and starting reading print. More likely, the real message in the charts above is that the newspapers still have $17 billion of print revenue left to lose.

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Sunday, May 25th, 2014 news No Comments

Local Media Revenue Landscape to Change as Digital



Last year, BIA/Kelsey estimates that slightly more than one-fifth (20.9%) of local media revenues were digital. By 2018, digital media should account for almost exactly one-third (33.2%) of revenues as the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.1% attributed to traditional media will trail the overall average of 3.6%.

What will change? The share of local media revenues attributed to online/interactive will grow from 9.9% to 13.1%. The bigger jump, of course, will be reserved for mobile, forecast to grow all the way from just 2.2% share last year to 9.9% share in 2018.

Direct mail, meanwhile, was by far the single largest local revenue driver last year, itself comprising 27.9% share of revenues. That figure should fall to 24.2% in 2018, per the researchers, remaining the single largest medium but falling behind digital media as a whole. Total dollar spending (not adjusting for inflation) on direct mail will actually inch up during the forecast period, but the rate of growth will lag the overall local media sector by a significant margin.

Meanwhile, print newspapers (13.5% share) will plummet to just 8.5% share in 2018, falling behind over-the-air radio (10.7%, down to 9.9%), online/interactiv! e, and m obile in the process. And local newspapers’ online revenue share is only expected to grow from 2.4% to 2.5% share, essentially keeping pace with the overall market. That’s a better result than seen by the newspaper industry as a whole last year, which saw its online advertising revenues increase by only 1.5% even as US online ad revenues jumped 17%.

While print newspapers – and to a lesser extent over-the-air radio – will see their share of the local media pie shrink during the forecast period, over-the-air TV is expected to hold steady at about 14% share, as is out-of-home, at roughly 6% share.

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Monday, April 28th, 2014 news No Comments

How Do Affluent Luxury Buyers Research Their Purchases?


IpsosGoogle-Affluent-Luxury-Buyers-Research-Habits-Sept2013More than 9 in 10 luxury buyers search for information prior to making a purchase, according to [pdf] a study conducted by Google and Ipsos across 9 markets. The research indicates that online research is more popular among respondents in fast-growing luxury markets such as Brazil and China than in traditional luxury markets such as France, the US, and Germany, where the average age of buyers is older. Roughly half of the information sources checked overall are online.

The survey was conducted among luxury purchasers (at least 2 luxury purchases in the past 2year in apparel/accessories and jewelry/watches) aged 25-65 with high household income levels that tended to be in the top 5-8% of each market’s households.

Among respondents in all of the markets, the most popular method for searching for information offline is by talking to someone or seeing and trying the product in-store or at an event. For respondents from new markets (China, Brazil, and Russia), reading or hearing the information in media ranks as the second-most common way of finding information offline, followed by seeing someone wearing the product. Among mature market respondents (France, UK, US, Italy, and Germany), the second-most common way of finding information offline is also through the media, while print ads (in newspapers or magazines) are next. Finally, in the Japanese market, talking to friends, family and colleagues ranks third behind the media.

For each group of markets, search engines were the most commonly used online information source, followed by looking for information on a website and application.

Internet Use Ubiquitous; Traditional Media Still Has Reach

When it comes to affluent luxury buyers’ media habits, the study find that the internet is almost universally used on a d! aily basi! s. TV’s reach ranges from 82-89% across the market segments, with newspapers in the 58-65% range. There is much more variance in magazine use, with 57% of respondents in new markets reading a magazine daily, compared to 39% in mature markets and 22% in Japan. Radio also sees a wide range of use, from a high of 74% in mature markets, down to 59% in new markets and just 23% in Japan.

Other Findings:

  • On average, respondents spent $2,500 on their last luxury purchase.
  • Most luxury purchases occur offline, with that skew most pronounced in Japan.
  • Affluent luxury buyers are more likely than the general population to own a variety of devices, with tablet penetration at 73% in new markets.
  • The main reasons for purchasing online are that it is convenient (53%), can be done anywhere, anytime (49%) and to find good deals (48%). The main barriers to shopping online are a preference for seeing and touching the product (65%) and concerns over the risk of counterfeit (35%).
  • The preferred online ad formats for luxury goods are video and full-screen ads.

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Wednesday, September 18th, 2013 news No Comments

Regional Economic Woes Drag Down Worldwide Total Media Ad Spend Growth

Ad spending on major media worldwide will be up 2.8% this year, new figures from eMarketer suggest, after a 4.4% climb in 2012 that was boosted in part by spending on the Olympics.

Slower growth this year will bring the total spent to $516.95 billion, which includes spending on digital (including mobile), directories, magazines, newspapers, outdoor ads, radio and TV.

2014 will once again see a jump in growth closer to 5%, due in part to expected outlays around the FIFA World Cup that year in Brazil. By 2017, spending will reach $616.65 billion.

The fastest growth in spending will come from emerging markets in Central and Eastern Europe, and Latin America, where regional growth this year will reach 8% and 7.5%, respectively—significantly higher than the worldwide average. Spending growth is also projected to come in above average this year in the Middle East and Africa, at 6.9%, and North America, including the US, at 3.4%.

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Monday, June 17th, 2013 news No Comments

News Reading Shifts To Tablets


Mobile Insights is a daily newsletter from BI Intelligence that collects and delivers the top mobile industry news. It is delivered first thing every morning exclusively to BI Intelligence subscribers.

nook tablet new york times appNews Readers Spend As Much Time on Tablets as Print (
Consumers in the U.S., Germany, and France are spending as much time reading news on tablets as they are reading printed newspapers, according to a new report from World Press Trends. That’s not surprising: tablets are an ideal reading device and, unlike newspapers, the news doesn’t go stale and is constantly refreshed. Overall, the report found that mobile accounts for 20% of page views in many markets. Read >

Android Owners Are Younger, Less Wealthy (Pew)
New research from Pew finds Android has a larger proportion of younger users than rival iOS. Perhaps not coincidentally, Android owners, on the whole, appear to be less wealthy. Overall, Pew found that 56% of Americans now own a smartphone. Read >

Screen Shot 2013 06 05 at 5.47.06 PM

Apple To Sell Audio Ads on iRadio (Ad Age)
Just like Pandora, Apple will sell streaming ads on its forthcoming Internet radio station, straying from its core capabilities: software and hardware design. The ads will be sold through iAd, its mobile ad network, which hasn’t been a sterling success thus far.
Read >


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Thursday, June 6th, 2013 news No Comments

JC Penney’s Media Spending Climbs But Sales Go Into Free Fall

CEO Ron Johnson Boosts TV Advertising, Adds Former Coca-Cola Marketer Sergio Zyman as an Adviser

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JC Penney sales plummeted 25% in 2012, even as its measured media spending jumped 14% to $504 million.

Ron Johnson

Ron Johnson

The beleaguered retailer spent more on advertising than it has in any of the last five years and made major changes to its media mix, under the direction of CEO Ron Johnson. TV advertising climbed, particularly network TV spending, while radio and internet display investments dropped. And despiteMr. Johnson’s declaration late last summer that the retailer would invest heavily in newspapers, spending in that category was down slightly.

JC Penney reported that its fourth-quarter net loss widened to $552 million. The retailer posted an annual net loss of $985 million.

Sales in the fourth quarter, which includes the holiday-shopping period, slid 28% to $3.88 billion. For the year, sales fell 25% to $12.98 billion. That marks the lowest annual revenue the retailer has reported since at least 1987.

“It’s the worst performance that I’ve ever encountered in decades of covering retail — there’s nothing really to compare it against,” said Bernie Sosnick, an analyst at Gilford Securities.


Source: Kantar Media

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Thursday, February 28th, 2013 news No Comments

State of Media Employment


tv, video, studio, huffington post, office tour, november 2012, bi, dng

The internet has caused massive disruption across the media landscape, causing a surge in job insecurity at traditional establishments.

But now we have a good look at the numbers.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has put together a presentation on the recent history and direction of media jobs. It’s not pretty.

Across several different industries (radio, TV, newspapers, film, etc.) there’s been a steady downward march in employment.

Total media jobs peaked at the beginning of the decade.

Employment in the book/periodical/music industry has been on a steady downward trend, and in 2011 the bottom completely fell out of the industry.

Sound recording? Same deal.

See the rest of the story at Business Insider

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Wednesday, January 30th, 2013 charts No Comments

Advertising Outlook 2012 – 2016

1. the overall advertising “pie” will shrink because the new efficiencies enabled by “digital” will allow advertisers to spend less (e.g. media placement dollars) and still drive the same or greater business impact

2. there will be a continued shift to digital, especially for companies that have products that benefit from more consumers coming online to do more research — e.g. bigger ticket items or items that require more consideration and research

3. because of the massive reach of Facebook, it will siphon branding dollars that used to be allocated to traditional one-way mass media such as TV; but in the short term magazines and newspapers will “hurt” the most, since they can’t even offer competitive mass reach any more – relative to Facebook.

Trends in Advertising by Augustine Fou Chief Digital Strategist from Dr Augustine Fou

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Thursday, November 29th, 2012 digital No Comments

Google Is Bigger Than The U.S. Print Ad Business (GOOG, NYT, NWS, GCI)


Here’s a look at how Google has been swallowing up the print business. Its ad revenues in the first half of this year were greater than the ad revenues of newspapers and U.S. magazines, according to German statistics site Statista (via Slate).

chart of the day, google advertising revenue, nov 2012

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Monday, November 12th, 2012 news No Comments

Marketing Costs Normalized to CPM Basis for Comparison

Comparing costs of various media channels, on a CPM basis – cost per thousand impressions basis.









UPDATED: January 30, 2013.  See also Comparative Media Costs Offline and Online



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Dr. Augustine Fou is Digital Consigliere to marketing executives, advising them on digital strategy and Unified Marketing(tm). Dr Fou has over 17 years of in-the-trenches, hands-on experience, which enables him to provide objective, in-depth assessments of their current marketing programs and recommendations for improving business impact and ROI using digital insights.

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