Economic and market phenomena occur in cycles.
The basic business cycle can be loosely defined a series of economic expansions and contractions.
But how long are these cycles and how can they be applied?
We compiled eight “cycle” theories that tell us varying things about where markets and the economy are going.
Some have been around for decades, others are fairly new.
One is even based on sun spots.
The Kondratiev Cycle
Creator: Nikolai Kondratiev (1892-1938)
Duration: 50-60 years
Theory: Economic growth in capitalist countries comes in long waves and are determined by technological innovations.
What it predicts: Prices, interest rates, foreign trade, coal, pig iron production
Where we are now: The Kondtratiev cycle indicates we’re in a blank period and at least 30 years away from the next economic expansion period.
Source: Andrey V. Korotayev
The Schumpeter Cycle
Creator: Joseph Schumpeter (1883-1950)
Duration: 50-60 years
Theory: Shumpeter cycles actually revolve around periodic “clusters of innovation”
What it predicts: Global economic paradigms
Where we are now: Schumpeter’s cycle says we’re on the ! downswin g from the most recent innovation cluster.
Source: Andrey V. Korotayev
The Kitchin Cycle
Creator: Joseph Kitchin (1861-1932)
Duration: 40 months
Theory: The market gets ‘flooded’ with commodities as growth accelerates. When demand declines, prices drop and the produced commodities get accumulated in inventories. But there is a delay between this and when entrepreneurs must reduce output.
What it predicts: Demand, prices, output
Where we are now: The Kitchin cycle indicates prices are in an upswing period, according toTimingSolution.com.
Source: Andrey V. Korotayev
There’s nothing like jumping the gun to announce your involvement with a phone that technically doesn’t exist, but we’ve gotta say, we love Qualcomm for doing it. The company has just revealed to us its role in the production of a smartphone from LG that’ll feature quad-core Snapdragon S4 internals, and if it performs anything like recent benchmarks suggest, you’d best hold onto your hats. For a little backstory, rumors are currently circulating that LG is producing a smartphone of epic proportions that’s known as the Optimus G, which is said to wield a quad-core processor, a 4.7-inch IPS True HD display, 2GB of RAM and a 13-megapixel camera. Whether it’s related to this announcement is anyone’s guess, but you’ll be forgiven for salivating at the prospect. Fortunately, you won’t have long to find out the true home of the quad-core Snapdragon S4, as Qualcomm has also revealed that LG plans to release its next superphone for commercial availability this September in South Korea, with other territories to follow.
Update: AnandTech has gotten word from Qualcomm that the LG device in question will pack an MDM9615 LTE baseband chip as well.
Filed under: Cellphones
Qualcomm confirms its role in ! LG super phone with quad-core Snapdragon S4 originally appeared on Engadget on Wed, 22 Aug 2012 20:54:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
These estimates are always to be taken with a grain of salt but, if UBM TechInsights is to be believed, Apple is cutting into its precious profit margins to keep the price of the iPad flat. According to the research firm, the total cost of components in the 16GB 4G model is around $310 — not including assembly and shipping. With a final price of $629, Cupertino is pulling in about a 51 percent profit, a sizable drop from the estimated 56 percent profit margin on the similarly specced iPad 2 at launch. A large chunk of that increased cost of production is made up by the new retina display, which is estimated to cost around $70, and the LTE chipset, which UBM priced at $21. In contrast, current pricing on the panel in the iPad 2 and its 3G radio rest at around $50 and $10, respectively. We’re sure Tim Cook isn’t losing any sleep though, there are plenty of other ways to make up that lost dough — like selling more iPads.
Early estimates say new iPad cuts Apple’s profit margins originally appeared on Engadget on Fri, 09 Mar 2012 10:17:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
Sometimes common “street smarts” fail you. Like when you ask the guy who’s selling you drugs if he’s a cop. Or when you encrypt your hard drive and refuse to unlock it for prosecutors while citing the self-incriminating clause of the Fifth Amendment.
A federal court judge has just ruled that being forced to decrypt one’s hard drive during prosecution does not violate the defendants’s Fifth Amendment rights. The ruling stems from a case against Ramona Fricosu, who is charged with mortgage fraud. She has refused to decrypt the contents of her hard drive arguing that doing so would require her to essentially testify against herself.
Nuh-uh, said judge Robert Blackburn, citing an earlier ruling against one Sebastien Boucher. In that case, the courts decided that, while Boucher’s encryption password was certainly protected, the information on his drive could be considered evidence in the case and was therefore not subject to the same liberties.
“I find and conclude that the Fifth Amendment is not implicated by requiring production of the unencrypted contents of the Toshiba Satellite M305 laptop computer,” Blackburn wrote in his opinion today. He also cited the All Writs Act, a 1789 statute, could be invoked as well to force Fricosu’s compliance.
Friscosu has until February 21 to comply or face contempt of court charges. Geez, it’s getting to the point that your secrets are better left on microfilm in pumpkin patches rather than on your hard drive. [CNet via The Verge]
Dr. Augustine Fou is Digital Consigliere to marketing executives, advising them on digital strategy and Unified Marketing(tm). Dr Fou has over 17 years of in-the-trenches, hands-on experience, which enables him to provide objective, in-depth assessments of their current marketing programs and recommendations for improving business impact and ROI using digital insights.
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