Economic and market phenomena occur in cycles.
The basic business cycle can be loosely defined a series of economic expansions and contractions.
But how long are these cycles and how can they be applied?
We compiled eight “cycle” theories that tell us varying things about where markets and the economy are going.
Some have been around for decades, others are fairly new.
One is even based on sun spots.
The Kondratiev Cycle
Creator: Nikolai Kondratiev (1892-1938)
Duration: 50-60 years
Theory: Economic growth in capitalist countries comes in long waves and are determined by technological innovations.
What it predicts: Prices, interest rates, foreign trade, coal, pig iron production
Where we are now: The Kondtratiev cycle indicates we’re in a blank period and at least 30 years away from the next economic expansion period.
Source: Andrey V. Korotayev
The Schumpeter Cycle
Creator: Joseph Schumpeter (1883-1950)
Duration: 50-60 years
Theory: Shumpeter cycles actually revolve around periodic “clusters of innovation”
What it predicts: Global economic paradigms
Where we are now: Schumpeter’s cycle says we’re on the ! downswin g from the most recent innovation cluster.
Source: Andrey V. Korotayev
The Kitchin Cycle
Creator: Joseph Kitchin (1861-1932)
Duration: 40 months
Theory: The market gets ‘flooded’ with commodities as growth accelerates. When demand declines, prices drop and the produced commodities get accumulated in inventories. But there is a delay between this and when entrepreneurs must reduce output.
What it predicts: Demand, prices, output
Where we are now: The Kitchin cycle indicates prices are in an upswing period, according toTimingSolution.com.
Source: Andrey V. Korotayev
While Apple and Samsung have been duking it out over patents, there’s always been the quiet, underlying irony that Samsung makes a whole bunch of the chips Apple relies on. Now, according to reports from CNET and MacRumors, Apple’s trying to change that.
It’s not exactly surprising. Apple already hired a big chip designer out from under Samsung. Now they’re just taking the next steps.
As an industry source put it to CNET:
“The Apple-Samsung relationship has deteriorated to such a poor point that they’re just looking to fill contractual obligations, then make a change.”
That change, it seems, is moving to the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company at 20 nanometers, a company that no doubt considers the giant’s business a huge boon. There are also rumors that Apple and Intel have been in talks when it comes to more advanced 14 nanometer production, though that seems further off.
A change like this doesn’t happen in an instant because it’s such a huge shift, but that makes it all the more noteworthy that it’s starting. If you thought Apple and Samsung were just going to kiss and make up, you were probably a bit deluded from the start, but this just goes to show that the rift is ever-widening. [CNET, MacRumors]
Since your average talkie is now recorded onto SD card and SSDs, companies that produce old-timey film are feeling the squeeze. As such, and despite its own efforts, Fujifilm is shuttering a large part of its cinema business by March 2013. While it’ll continue to produce stills film (for the time being, at least) and archival material similar to Kodak’s Asset Protection film, moves are under way to redirect its focus toward digital tools that won’t be left behind as people start to make movies on their smartphones.
Filed under: Cameras
Fujifilm sees which way wind is blowing, ends production of cinema film originally appeared on Engadget on Thu, 13 Sep 2012 16:59:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
Streaming is fast becoming the way most of us consume media, whether it’s music, TV of film. But caught up by the sheer convenience of it all, it’s easy to forget to question its environmental impacts. Could streaming actually be bad for the planet?
Streaming or downloading 12 tracks, without compression, just 27 times by one user would, in energy terms, equate to the production and shipping of one physical 12-track CD album.
In other words, repeated streaming of favorite tracks might not be a desirable long-terms media solution. Fortunately some apps—like Spotify—feature a local caching feature, which avoida repeatedly streaming the same song over and over.
But what about the fact that teenagers use YouTube as their main music source these days? The mighty ‘Tube’s rise is seeing it use more and more electricity—and the report speculates that its energy consumption looks set to rise from around 0.1 percent of 2010 global electricity levels to 1 percent by 2013.
The report offers one extremely leftfield solution to the problem: observing Moore’s law, it speculates that a 1 petabyte drive capable of storing all the songs ever recorded could soon cost just $100. Ship that to every user, it suggests, along with some remote server-based player required to access the content, and the planet’s resources won’t be drained as quickly. Convinced? [Music Tank via Paid Content]
In Insert Coin, we look at an exciting new tech project that requires funding before it can hit production. If you’d like to pitch a project, please send us a tip with “Insert Coin” as the subject line.
If you’ve ever thought “Hey, my internet is pretty slow, maybe I can get a second line and combine them into one big, zippy connection!” then you’re not alone — those of us who are broadband-deprived need all the help we can get. But a quick tour through Google will show you the difficulty of doing that process, called “bonding,” at home. So, Connectify has proposed Dispatch, software that lets you easily combine your WiFi, ethernet and 3G/4G into a single, fat pipe, at a reasonable cost. The company brings along wireless sharing know-how from its Hotspot product to the project, and promises that with every connection you combine, you’ll get a corresponding bump in throughput. Also, the system will automatically failover to a good connection if one goes on the fritz, and even switch automatically between WiFi and 3G/4G to maximize speed and save money.
To prove the tech, the company combined all the available open WiFi networks in a neighborhood along with a tethered Verizon mobile phone, and were able to create an impressive 85Mbs connection, as the video below the break shows. So far, Connectify ha! s vacuum ed up $30K for Dispatch toward the $50K objective, with about two weeks left. So, if you’re desperate for more speed, or just want to trump your neighbor’s bandwidth by stealing his WiFi and melding it with your ADSL, check the source to see how to pledge.
Filed under: Internet
Insert Coin: Connectify Dispatch lets you put all your internets together into one big internet (video) originally appeared on Engadget on Thu, 23 Aug 2012 14:47:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
There’s nothing like jumping the gun to announce your involvement with a phone that technically doesn’t exist, but we’ve gotta say, we love Qualcomm for doing it. The company has just revealed to us its role in the production of a smartphone from LG that’ll feature quad-core Snapdragon S4 internals, and if it performs anything like recent benchmarks suggest, you’d best hold onto your hats. For a little backstory, rumors are currently circulating that LG is producing a smartphone of epic proportions that’s known as the Optimus G, which is said to wield a quad-core processor, a 4.7-inch IPS True HD display, 2GB of RAM and a 13-megapixel camera. Whether it’s related to this announcement is anyone’s guess, but you’ll be forgiven for salivating at the prospect. Fortunately, you won’t have long to find out the true home of the quad-core Snapdragon S4, as Qualcomm has also revealed that LG plans to release its next superphone for commercial availability this September in South Korea, with other territories to follow.
Update: AnandTech has gotten word from Qualcomm that the LG device in question will pack an MDM9615 LTE baseband chip as well.
Filed under: Cellphones
Qualcomm confirms its role in ! LG super phone with quad-core Snapdragon S4 originally appeared on Engadget on Wed, 22 Aug 2012 20:54:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
These estimates are always to be taken with a grain of salt but, if UBM TechInsights is to be believed, Apple is cutting into its precious profit margins to keep the price of the iPad flat. According to the research firm, the total cost of components in the 16GB 4G model is around $310 — not including assembly and shipping. With a final price of $629, Cupertino is pulling in about a 51 percent profit, a sizable drop from the estimated 56 percent profit margin on the similarly specced iPad 2 at launch. A large chunk of that increased cost of production is made up by the new retina display, which is estimated to cost around $70, and the LTE chipset, which UBM priced at $21. In contrast, current pricing on the panel in the iPad 2 and its 3G radio rest at around $50 and $10, respectively. We’re sure Tim Cook isn’t losing any sleep though, there are plenty of other ways to make up that lost dough — like selling more iPads.
Early estimates say new iPad cuts Apple’s profit margins originally appeared on Engadget on Fri, 09 Mar 2012 10:17:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
Sometimes common “street smarts” fail you. Like when you ask the guy who’s selling you drugs if he’s a cop. Or when you encrypt your hard drive and refuse to unlock it for prosecutors while citing the self-incriminating clause of the Fifth Amendment.
A federal court judge has just ruled that being forced to decrypt one’s hard drive during prosecution does not violate the defendants’s Fifth Amendment rights. The ruling stems from a case against Ramona Fricosu, who is charged with mortgage fraud. She has refused to decrypt the contents of her hard drive arguing that doing so would require her to essentially testify against herself.
Nuh-uh, said judge Robert Blackburn, citing an earlier ruling against one Sebastien Boucher. In that case, the courts decided that, while Boucher’s encryption password was certainly protected, the information on his drive could be considered evidence in the case and was therefore not subject to the same liberties.
“I find and conclude that the Fifth Amendment is not implicated by requiring production of the unencrypted contents of the Toshiba Satellite M305 laptop computer,” Blackburn wrote in his opinion today. He also cited the All Writs Act, a 1789 statute, could be invoked as well to force Fricosu’s compliance.
Friscosu has until February 21 to comply or face contempt of court charges. Geez, it’s getting to the point that your secrets are better left on microfilm in pumpkin patches rather than on your hard drive. [CNet via The Verge]
Dr. Augustine Fou is Digital Consigliere to marketing executives, advising them on digital strategy and Unified Marketing(tm). Dr Fou has over 17 years of in-the-trenches, hands-on experience, which enables him to provide objective, in-depth assessments of their current marketing programs and recommendations for improving business impact and ROI using digital insights.
Collaborators – Digital Profs
- Netflix vs Blockbuster - Perfect example of an industry replaced by a more efficient version of itself
- Coke vs Pepsi vs Dr Pepper
- Marketing Costs Normalized to CPM Basis for Comparison
- The JKWeddingDance video was real; the viral effect was MANUFACTURED - Post 1 of 2
- The Grand Unified Theory of Marketing(tm) - Digital String Theory
- On Sept. 15, Google Will Make A Massive Bet Against Apple's iPhone 6 Strategy (GOOG, AAPL)
- Why Urban Outfitters Keeps Selling Offensive Clothing
- Tim Cook Ripped Apart Google's Business Model In Two Paragraphs (AAPL)
- US CMOs Report No Growth in Use, Influence of Marketing Analytics
- Brand Advertisers: Escaping an Ecosystem of Digital Advertising Fraud
- #SESNY: Toward a Performance Mindset for All Advertising
- Tips for Marketers Selecting a Digital Agency
- Context Is Not King or Queen; It's Just Necessary
- 2013 New Year's Digital Marketing Resolutions
- The Good, Bad, and Ugly of Online Campaign Ratings and eGRPs
- Why You Should Banish the Net Promoter Score Immediately
- Digital Strategy To-MAY-to vs. To-MAH-to
- The Agency-Client Relationship is Forever Changed
- Targeting vs. Privacy - Who Will Win?
- September 2014 (109)
- August 2014 (44)
- July 2014 (92)
- June 2014 (118)
- May 2014 (173)
- April 2014 (130)
- March 2014 (247)
- February 2014 (167)
- January 2014 (222)
- December 2013 (167)
- November 2013 (111)
- October 2013 (116)
- September 2013 (214)
- August 2013 (210)
- July 2013 (200)
- June 2013 (87)
- May 2013 (87)
- April 2013 (70)
- March 2013 (114)
- February 2013 (89)
- January 2013 (136)
- December 2012 (96)
- November 2012 (130)
- October 2012 (147)
- September 2012 (94)
- August 2012 (93)
- July 2012 (112)
- June 2012 (71)
- May 2012 (82)
- April 2012 (80)
- March 2012 (122)
- February 2012 (114)
- January 2012 (129)
- December 2011 (60)
- November 2011 (54)
- October 2011 (29)
- September 2011 (17)
- August 2011 (30)
- July 2011 (18)
- June 2011 (19)
- May 2011 (23)
- April 2011 (23)
- March 2011 (52)
- February 2011 (69)
- January 2011 (108)
- December 2010 (82)
- November 2010 (67)
- October 2010 (68)
- September 2010 (44)
- August 2010 (101)
- July 2010 (61)
- June 2010 (28)
- May 2010 (28)
- April 2010 (26)
- March 2010 (33)
- February 2010 (21)
- January 2010 (13)
- December 2009 (4)
- November 2009 (2)
- October 2009 (14)
- September 2009 (6)
- August 2009 (19)
- July 2009 (34)
- June 2009 (11)
- May 2009 (4)
- April 2009 (6)
- March 2009 (13)
- February 2009 (32)
- January 2009 (25)
- December 2008 (1)
- October 2008 (1)
- June 2008 (1)
- November 2007 (1)