Tech pundits are still weighing in on Google‘s computerized glasses, Google Glass.
But getting a free version of a new gadget, or being rich enough that you can plunk down $1,500 for one, is very different from actually choosing to buy one as a normal person.
And that, for any new gadget, is where the rubber meets the road.
So what’s the current consensus for future Google Glass sales?
According to a poll we ran over the weekend, the consensus is that there really isn’t a consensus. The assessments, again, are all over the map.
If there is a bias, though, it’s to the negative. More people think Google Glass is going to flop that think it’s going to be a runaway hit.
Specifically, more than a quarter of people expect Google to sell less than a million units of Glass (or equivalent) in three years.
More than half expect Google to sell less than 8 million units a year.
Given the early excitement around the technology, both of those outcomes would be considered a flop.
Meanwhile, 14% of people think Google will sell more than 80 million units a year in three years.
That sales level would be a massive home run.
Here are the current results of the poll. You can cast your own vote here.
Microsoft‘s own Surface Pro tablet starts at $899, and many other Windows Pro devices are over $1,000.
But that will soon change, Otellini predicts.
He expects to see Intel-based Windows 8 tablets in the $300-$400 range by the fall:
… I think people are attracted to touch, and the touch price points today are still fairly high, and they’re coming down very rapidly over the next couple of quarters. … [as] OEMs start looking at new form factors … the competitiveness of that platform is going to be substantially different, at price points down into the $300 to $400 range enabling touch. We didn’t have that last year.
He says that other Intel-based tablets are coming too, priced as low as $200, though he didn’t say what operating system these would use. He described them as “touch-enabled Intel based notebooks that are ultrathin and light using non-core processors.” These could be Android devices because Intel supplies chips for Android devices, too.
And he slipped in a light zinger at Windows 8 and its learning curve, too:
I’ve recently converted personally to Windows 8 with touch, and it is a better Windows than Windows 7 in the desktop mode … There is an adoption curve, and once you get over that ad! option c urve, I don’t think you go back. And we didn’t quite have that same kind of adoption curve in Windows 7 versus XP before it.
He’s certainly not alone in saying these things. Pundits have been telling Microsoft the same thing since before Windows 8 actually began shipping, while people were playing with the preview versions of it.
None of this will Otellini’s problem soon enough. After 40 years with the company, he is retiring in May.
He noted that pundits said a $99 Kindle would send people into a “fervor”. Then Bezos whipped out a $99 Kindle Touch and said the “fervor” for cheap Kindles could begin.
A few minutes later, (oddly) with less excitement, Bezos revealed a $79 Kindle. Considering the Kindle started at $399 four years ago, these are very impressive price cuts.
We’ll start the next round of questions from the pundits to Bezos: When will the Kindle be free? When will Amazon’s special offers, and Prime program make it cheap enough for Amazon to give away Kindles? Next year? The year after that?
- CHART OF THE DAY: The Incredible Growth Of Amazon’s Kindle Book Sales
- Amazon’s Tablet Is A "Pretty Poor" "Stopgap" That The Kindle Team Didn’t Even Work On
- The One Huge Reason Why Amazon Will Not Beat Apple
Dr. Augustine Fou is Digital Consigliere to marketing executives, advising them on digital strategy and Unified Marketing(tm). Dr Fou has over 17 years of in-the-trenches, hands-on experience, which enables him to provide objective, in-depth assessments of their current marketing programs and recommendations for improving business impact and ROI using digital insights.
- Netflix vs Blockbuster - Perfect example of an industry replaced by a more efficient version of itself
- Coke vs Pepsi vs Dr Pepper
- Marketing Costs Normalized to CPM Basis for Comparison
- 3G calling, no registration, and totally free
- AOL's Plan To Steal TV Ad Dollars Is Totally Working
- The Top Endorsement Earners In Each Sport
- Groupon launches Breadcrumb iPad app, vows to not be a typical POS
- HP Mini 311 Nvidia ION Netbook Hackintosh'ed
- Flash Sale Sites Have A Social Media Problem
- #SESNY: Toward a Performance Mindset for All Advertising
- Tips for Marketers Selecting a Digital Agency
- Context Is Not King or Queen; It's Just Necessary
- 2013 New Year's Digital Marketing Resolutions
- The Good, Bad, and Ugly of Online Campaign Ratings and eGRPs
- Why You Should Banish the Net Promoter Score Immediately
- Digital Strategy To-MAY-to vs. To-MAH-to
- The Agency-Client Relationship is Forever Changed
- Targeting vs. Privacy - Who Will Win?
- Digital + Traditional = Unified Marketing
- May 2013 (51)
- April 2013 (70)
- March 2013 (114)
- February 2013 (89)
- January 2013 (136)
- December 2012 (96)
- November 2012 (130)
- October 2012 (147)
- September 2012 (94)
- August 2012 (92)
- July 2012 (112)
- June 2012 (71)
- May 2012 (82)
- April 2012 (80)
- March 2012 (122)
- February 2012 (114)
- January 2012 (129)
- December 2011 (60)
- November 2011 (54)
- October 2011 (29)
- September 2011 (17)
- August 2011 (30)
- July 2011 (18)
- June 2011 (19)
- May 2011 (23)
- April 2011 (23)
- March 2011 (52)
- February 2011 (69)
- January 2011 (108)
- December 2010 (82)
- November 2010 (67)
- October 2010 (68)
- September 2010 (44)
- August 2010 (101)
- July 2010 (61)
- June 2010 (28)
- May 2010 (28)
- April 2010 (26)
- March 2010 (33)
- February 2010 (21)
- January 2010 (12)
- December 2009 (4)
- November 2009 (2)
- October 2009 (14)
- September 2009 (6)
- August 2009 (19)
- July 2009 (34)
- June 2009 (11)
- May 2009 (4)
- April 2009 (6)
- March 2009 (13)
- February 2009 (32)
- January 2009 (25)
- December 2008 (1)
- October 2008 (1)
- June 2008 (1)
- November 2007 (1)