This Horrific Media Spend Data Says There WILL Be A Global Recession In 2013 (OMC, IPG, WPPGY, HAVFP, AGSL, MDCA, PUB)
The four largest ad agency companies have all reported their Q3 numbers, and all of them agreed on one thing: The economics of media spending and the macro-economic picture generally don’t look good
The pattern is ominous: Revenue growth at Interpublic Group just went negative for the first time since the last recession. All the other companies are trending down. GDP growth is anemic — and that number isn’t the government’s final estimate. The final number may be worse.
This chart plots “organic” (like for like, year-on-year) revenue growth at the four largest ad agency holding companies and compares it to sequential growth in U.S. GDP.
Those companies are WPP Group (which owns Ogilvy, Y&R and JWT, among others), Omnicom (BBDO, DDB and TBWA), Interpublic Group (DraftFCB, McCann and Deutsch) and Publicis Groupe (Saatchi & Saatchi, Leo Burnett and Digitas).
We believe it is interesting because advertising revenues are a good proxy for economic growth globally. They represent a broad range of companies with revenues that come from both the U.S. and foreign countries, and companies signal their optimism via their willingness to spend on ads.
The obvious caveat: The sequential vs. y-o-y numbers are apples vs. oranges.
So is this anecdotal trend real, or a mi! rage? Le t’s examine the evidence.
This is Interpublic’s ‘Powerpoint From Hell.’ We’re basically right back at 2008, according to IPG’s numbers.
It doesn’t matter where you look at IPG, everything is trending negative.
Publicis Groupe’s Q3 earnings contained these grim surprises: It expected 6.6% growth in September but got -1.6% instead. Its clients appear to be frozen in the headlights. (Red emphases added.)
As you can see in this chart, 69 percent of new apps started by developers in the first quarter of the year were for iOS, as opposed to 31 percent for Android. The data comes from Flurry, which is a mobile analytics company working with thousands of developers.
What this means is that for every 10 new apps started by a developer, seven are for the iPhone, and just three are for Android.
What is the “platform war”? It’s a battle to get the best software from the best developers on your platform.
As we explained earlier this week, marketshare only matters if it means developers are focused on your platform first. If developers choose Android first, then Apple has a big problem. It misses out on the best software. If it misses out on the best software, consumers are more likely to choose Android.
For whatever reason, despite Android’s huge lead in marketshare, developers still choose Apple’s iOS first. Until this changes, Apple’s smaller share of the market is not a big problem.
Android defenders might look at this chart and note its share of the new project starts are growing on a sequential basis. However, Flurry says, “While Google made some gains in Q1 2012, edging up over the 30 percent mark for the first time in a year, this is largely due to seasonality, as Apple sees a spike in developer support leading up to the holiday season.”
a great technique to use to see if your website design is too cluttered or busy is to shrink it down to a thumbnail (like below). You will quickly see that your eye is trying to find something to focus on in each case. If you can’t find the thing to focus on, then you need to go back and simplify the design. Only in rare and specific circumstances should your site deliberately have multiple points of focus. Even then, there should be a sequential order to what the user is led to see.
Dr. Augustine Fou is Digital Consigliere to marketing executives, advising them on digital strategy and Unified Marketing(tm). Dr Fou has over 17 years of in-the-trenches, hands-on experience, which enables him to provide objective, in-depth assessments of their current marketing programs and recommendations for improving business impact and ROI using digital insights.
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