Facebook has managed to get two bearish analysts to change their mind.
Carlos Kirjner at Bernstein Research and Rich Greenfield at BTIG have both upgraded the stock this morning. We’ve written up Greenfield’s note here, if you want to read it. (In short, he thinks Facebook’s plan to stuff ads in the mobile news feed is going help it beat Q4 estimates.)
As for Kirjner, he’s rating the stock “outperform,” and has a $33 price target.
Here’s why in a nutshell:
We think consensus is underestimating Facebook’s revenue growth potential over the next 12-24 months. We think Facebook is on path to beat consensus revenues over the next 12-24 months, delivering $6,976 million in 2013, 9% higher than consensus’ $6,388 million, and $8,650 million in 2014, or 7% higher than consensus’ $8,078 million. Further monetization of (mobile) Newsfeed inventory will be the main driver of growth, as we believe that for the next 18-24 months Facebook probably can increase the number of ad impressions per user per day with limited chance of seeing material deterioration in user experience. We also believe that at this point and for the near-to-medium term, its revenue growth trajectory will be the main driver of Facebook’s stock performance. In addition to mobile, further monetization of the PC Newsfeed and the positive impact of the Facebook Exchange on right-hand-side column CPMs will help drive growth.
Beyond this, Kirjner believes Facebook’s social advertising initiatives can work:
Social, new businesses opportunities and the platform remain options fo! r furthe r upside for the next two years and beyond. The successful monetization of Newsfeed inventory and introduction of the Facebook Exchange have given Facebook an 18-24 month runway to develop new revenue streams from new formats (e.g., gifts), to work with advertisers and third parties such as Datalogix and Nielsen to improve (online brand) advertising ROI and its measurement, which would enhance its long-term pricing, and to continue pushing adoption of social across the Web with its platform play, based on Facebook Connect and the Open Graph Protocol. In other words, we still think of Facebook as a distinctive display advertising business, but mobile and the exchange make it better and larger, and extend the time horizon Facebook has to realize the potential of new business opportunities and of social advertising.
The bottom line here is that Facebook has shown it’s willing to build a big business, something analysts didn’t think would happen. And now they’re upgrading the stock. They are still cautious about how it all plays out, but overall there is reason to be positive about the stock for the first time since it became publicly traded.
Google’s flagship tablet the Nexus 7 tablet is even cheaper today.
It appears that Office Depot spilled the news about the prices. Office Depot is also currently displaying the new 32GB version of the Nexus 7 for $249.
We’re unsure what Google plans to do with its 8GB Nexus 7, which was formerly available for $199. There has been some talk that it’ll drop to $99.
Google was supposed to announce the availability of the new 32GB version today at an Android event in New York City, but that was cancelled due to Hurricane Sandy.
Funny or Die is going commercial by, well, creating commercials.
The Adam McKay and Will Ferrell brainchild, which had a humble start in 2007 (featuring videos of drunken landlord babies) and then exploded into a celebrity-laden viral video machine, is launching a division called Gifted Youth that is entirely dedicated to making real advertisements.
While some products have been integrated into videos—like Emma Stone’s “ad” for iPhone murder apps—it wasn’t done to sell anything. So far, brands have served as excuses to make funny videos. Now they’re going to be the main event.
Chris Bruss, the vp/branded entertainment at Funny or Die who will helm Gifted Youth, told the New York Times that the division will give agencies and marketers the coveted opportunity to work with writers, directors, and maybe even actors who have worked with Funny or Die.
Advertising agencies are constantly trying to create the next big viral video. While once in a blue moon a client will sign off on Old Spice guy, let’s face it, moons are rarely blue and agencies are far more likely to make Mary J. Blige sing about fried chicken in a Burger King ad that is destined to get pulled.
Funny or Die, on the other hand, epically wins at viral content. For example, Will Ferrell’s local Super Bowl ads for Milwaukee beer—spawned from a deal that Pabst made with Funny or Die in 2010—got more Twitter mentions than $3.5 million national Super Bowl spots for Cadillac, Century 21, CareerBuilder, Lexus, and Hulu.
But everyone shouldn’t start dancing in the street just yet. While Funny or Die is good at creating funny content, it’s a whole other ball game when you have a client that’s going to have to approve content every step of the way. Who’s really going to be able to tell Will Ferrell, for example, what he can and can’t say? We’re also anticipating that agencies, who just love working/competing with new creatives on the block, will be butting heads with Gifted Youth.
The new ad shop had a soft launch during TNT’s slam dunk contest during the NBA All-Star weekend by airing a Kia commercial starring Blake Griffin and actor Jeff Goldblum. Gifted Youth also just released spots for New Era baseball caps in which comedians Nick Offerman and Craig Robinson fight over their respective love for the Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Socks. (This is a continuation of last year’s ads in which John Krasinski and Alec Baldwin feud about the Red Socks and the Yankees).
According to GSM Helpdesk Netherlands, this is Samsung’s next superphone, the Galaxy S III. The image is supposedly an official press shot, and the the timing makes some sense, since it’s about a year since we first saw a leak about the Galaxy S II.
GSM’s tipster also includes some specs that have been floating around for a while, like a 1.5GHz quad-core processor, a 4.7-inch 720p Super-AMOLED screen at 313ppi, and a 12MP camera. May 22 is mentioned as a launch date, which jibes with some recent rumors and the May 22nd date on the phone’s home screen. The phone looks really nice for the many fans of humongous phones with humongous specs. [GSM Helpdesk via BGR]
For the first time ever, you’ll be able to watch every single olympic event live. NBC has teamed up with YouTube to livestream more than 3000 hours of coverage from the London 2012 Olympics for free. First the Super Bowl was streamed online and now this!
The Olympics will be streamed live on NBCOlympics.com using YouTube’s infrastructure. The games won’t actually be streamed on YouTube, and given the volume of people who will be trying to watch, it’s a good thing YouTube is tackling the project.
This is a sports junky’s dream. Every four years everyone probably watches popular Olympic events like the 100-meter dash live because the networks actually broadcast them on TV. But if you wanted to catch the live cycling action down at the London velodrome, you were out of luck until now. [NBC via Time]
This chart from Dan Frommer at SplatF shows what he calls its “sexy growth.” The company is now processing about $11 million worth of transactions daily basis, up from just $1 million a day last year.
Dr. Augustine Fou is Digital Consigliere to marketing executives, advising them on digital strategy and Unified Marketing(tm). Dr Fou has over 17 years of in-the-trenches, hands-on experience, which enables him to provide objective, in-depth assessments of their current marketing programs and recommendations for improving business impact and ROI using digital insights.
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